CAJ | 학술논문

针对电力系统规划中电源建设周期的不确定性对规划电网供需形势的影响，提出规划电网供需风险概率评估方法。该方法结合电源建设进度，用概率来描述电源建设周期的不确定性，建立规划电网供需风险评估及风险指标分解模型，并根据各电厂风险指标辨识电源建设的薄弱环节。以国内某省级电网为例，进行了算例分析，验证了该方法的有效性。
침대전력계통규화중전원건설주기적불학정성대규화전망공수형세적영향，제출규화전망공수풍험개솔평고방법。해방법결합전원건설진도，용개솔래묘술전원건설주기적불학정성，건립규화전망공수풍험평고급풍험지표분해모형，병근거각전엄풍험지표변식전원건설적박약배절。이국내모성급전망위례，진행료산례분석，험증료해방법적유효성。
Aiming at the influence of power supply construction period uncertainty to the supply -demand risk in planning power grid, a probabilistic assessment method of the risk is proposed in this paper.Considering the construction progress of the power sup-ply, the method describes the uncertainty in probability, and builds up models for the risk assessment and risk indicator decomposi-tion.And according to the risk indicator of each planning power supply project, the method does the weakness identification of power supply construction.A provincial power grid is taken as an analysis example with the proposed method, and the feasibility of the meth-od is verified.