CAJ | 학술논문

　　IT工程时间风险是IT工程中的最主要的风险之一，现有的IT工程时间风险的度量方法大多是直接基于专家打分的度量结果，导致结果的精度不够，给实际应用带来了不便。为了改善该问题，文中提出两个不同的分析路径来解决估计结果的离散问题，一种是特定分布假设条件下 IT 工程时间风险度量方法，主要步骤是首先设定每一步IT时间服从的分布，然后在理论上推导出特定概率保证下IT工程时间风险的计算公式，最后利用专家打分值计算得到IT工程时间风险的度量值；另一种是利用蒙特卡洛模拟度量IT工程时间风险方法，在设定好分布形态后计算相应的 IT 工程时间风险度量值。最后文中利用上述两种方法度量了一个简单小型项目在不同概率情况下的时间风险值，结果表明利用蒙特卡洛模拟度量 IT 工程时间风险方法在满足度量精度的条件下，具有更广的适用面。
　　IT공정시간풍험시IT공정중적최주요적풍험지일，현유적IT공정시간풍험적도량방법대다시직접기우전가타분적도량결과，도치결과적정도불구，급실제응용대래료불편。위료개선해문제，문중제출량개불동적분석로경래해결고계결과적리산문제，일충시특정분포가설조건하 IT 공정시간풍험도량방법，주요보취시수선설정매일보IT시간복종적분포，연후재이론상추도출특정개솔보증하IT공정시간풍험적계산공식，최후이용전가타분치계산득도IT공정시간풍험적도량치；령일충시이용몽특잡락모의도량IT공정시간풍험방법，재설정호분포형태후계산상응적 IT 공정시간풍험도량치。최후문중이용상술량충방법도량료일개간단소형항목재불동개솔정황하적시간풍험치，결과표명이용몽특잡락모의도량 IT 공정시간풍험방법재만족도량정도적조건하，구유경엄적괄용면。
Risk of the IT Project’s Time is one of the most important risks in IT projects. Most of the existing IT engineering time risk metrics is directly based on Experts Grading Method metric results, so the accuracy of the results is not enough to bring the practical application of the inconveniencing. In order to solve this problem, two different analytical paths are proposed in this paper. The first risk measurement method is to measure the risk in the specific distribution assumptions on IT Project’s time;the second one is using the Monte Carlo simulation to measure IT project time risk. And finally, the risk of a simple small-scale IT projects Time is measured using the two methods. The result shows that the measure IT project time risk method using Monte Carlo simulation can meet the precision, and it is applicable to a wider area.