CAJ | 학술논문

　　有效识别我国船舶制造企业生命周期阶段，对推动企业的成长与发展具有重要意义。以企业生命周期理论为基础，通过对Gompertz模型参数估计方法以及企业生命周期阶段识别标准进行论述，进而提出生命周期阶段分界点的确认方法，并选择10家船舶制造企业作为实证研究对象，运用Gompertz模型对企业生命周期阶段进行识别。基于阶段识别结果，拟合了处于成长期的7家船舶制造企业2000－2050年的生命周期曲线，并确定了生命周期阶段的分界点。研究结果显示，7家船舶制造企业进入成长期所需时间不同，但共同点在于这些企业所经历的成长期都较长，而成熟期较短，这与船舶制造强国的企业发展历程相契合。
　　유효식별아국선박제조기업생명주기계단，대추동기업적성장여발전구유중요의의。이기업생명주기이론위기출，통과대Gompertz모형삼수고계방법이급기업생명주기계단식별표준진행논술，진이제출생명주기계단분계점적학인방법，병선택10가선박제조기업작위실증연구대상，운용Gompertz모형대기업생명주기계단진행식별。기우계단식별결과，의합료처우성장기적7가선박제조기업2000－2050년적생명주기곡선，병학정료생명주기계단적분계점。연구결과현시，7가선박제조기업진입성장기소수시간불동，단공동점재우저사기업소경력적성장기도교장，이성숙기교단，저여선박제조강국적기업발전역정상계합。
An effective recognition of the Chinese shipbuilding enterprise's life cycle stage is of great significance to promoting the growth and development of the shipbuilding enterprises. Based on the enterprises life cycle theory, the parameter estimation method of Compertz model and the standard for recognizing the enterprise life cycle stage were constructed, and the confirming method of life cycle stages dividing points were provided as well. Ten ship?building enterprises were chosen as empirical research objects afterwards, and next, the life circle stage of ship?building enterprises was recognized based on the distinguished Compertz model. On the basis of stage recognizing results, the life cycle stages curves of seven shipbuilding enterprises in growth stage from 2000 to 2050 were fitted. Furthermore, dividing points of each enterprise's life cycle stages were confirmed. The research results suggested that the time entering into growth stage for the seven shipbuilding enterprises was very different, whereas the com?mon denominator was that the growth stage these enterprises experienced was long, while the mature stage was short. The results were consistent with the enterprise development period in the advanced shipbuilding countries.