CAJ | 학술논문

　　针对制导子弹药命中概率模型方面研究的不足，详细分析了制导子弹药与无控子弹药在结构与作用原理方面的不同，以及制导子弹药的捕获概率、发现识别概率；结合无控子弹药落点散布规律，运用蒙特卡洛方法建立了制导子弹药命中概率计算模型，并对不同捕获概率下对给定目标的命中概率进行了分析。仿真结果表明，制导子弹药对特定目标的命中概率远高于无控子弹药，命中概率模型的建立为制导子弹药效能分析奠定了基础。
　　침대제도자탄약명중개솔모형방면연구적불족，상세분석료제도자탄약여무공자탄약재결구여작용원리방면적불동，이급제도자탄약적포획개솔、발현식별개솔；결합무공자탄약낙점산포규률，운용몽특잡락방법건립료제도자탄약명중개솔계산모형，병대불동포획개솔하대급정목표적명중개솔진행료분석。방진결과표명，제도자탄약대특정목표적명중개솔원고우무공자탄약，명중개솔모형적건립위제도자탄약효능분석전정료기출。
To make up for the shortages in the research of damage probility model of guidance bullet drug, the differences between unguided submution and guidance bullet drug in structure and action principle were dis?cussed in detail. Then the models of capture probability and detection probability were studied. With the help of Mento-calo method, the hit probability model of guidance bullet drug to given targets was established. The simulation results indicated that the guidance bullet drug was far better than unguided submunition in hit proba?bility of given armored targets. The results also provided solid theoretical basis for the analysis of submunition efficiency.