CAJ | 학술논문

　　本文根据广东省统计年鉴，计算出1990～2011年碳排放量，结合经济发展水平、能源结构和产业结构，分析广东省碳排放动态演进过程，并通过LMDI因素分解模型，分析出经济发展、能源强度和碳排放强度的贡献度和贡献率。研究表明：广东省碳排放量与经济发展水平高度相关，高碳能源结构和产业结构将使得碳排放量保持增长态势；经济发展因素推动碳排放增长，能源强度和碳排放强度抑制碳排放增长。
　　본문근거광동성통계년감，계산출1990～2011년탄배방량，결합경제발전수평、능원결구화산업결구，분석광동성탄배방동태연진과정，병통과LMDI인소분해모형，분석출경제발전、능원강도화탄배방강도적공헌도화공헌솔。연구표명：광동성탄배방량여경제발전수평고도상관，고탄능원결구화산업결구장사득탄배방량보지증장태세；경제발전인소추동탄배방증장，능원강도화탄배방강도억제탄배방증장。
According Statistical Yearbook Guangdong Province, calculate carbon emissions from 1990 to 2011. Combing the level of economic development, energy and industrial structures, analysis Guangdong Province dynamic evolution of carbon emissions. The paper get contribution and contribution rate of the economic development, energy intensity and carbon intensity by LMDI factors decomposition model. The result shows that:There was a high liner correlation between econic growth and carbon emission. high-carbon energy structure and industrial structure will allow carbon emissions to maintain growth momentum. Economic development factors promotes the growth of carbon emissions. Energy intensity and carbon intensity inhibits the growth of carbon emissions.