CAJ | 학술논문

　　为了更准确做出最低气温的临近预报，为果农或农户提供防冻（寒）害预警服务，以年度极端最低气温与当晚20点的温差与当晚天气状况进行相关分析，估算当晚的降温幅度，进而预测次日最低气温。据福清50多年的资料统计分析结果表明：（1）年度极端最低气温同当晚20点的温差与同时次的相对湿度相关最为密切，故可用20点的相对湿度来估算当晚的降温幅度，结合当晚20点的气温便可预测次日凌晨可能出现的最低气温；（2）据各乡镇自动站同市气象局的低温差，可预测各乡镇次日凌晨的最低气温，该低温若低于当地的主栽果树和经济作物冻（寒）害指标，可告知果农或农户，要采取喷灌（或灌水）、熏烟等防冻措施，以避免或减轻因低温造成的冻（寒）害。作为临近预报的补充工具对提高低温预报精度大有补益，可为果农或农户采取防冻（寒）害措施提供依据。
　　위료경준학주출최저기온적림근예보，위과농혹농호제공방동（한）해예경복무，이년도겁단최저기온여당만20점적온차여당만천기상황진행상관분석，고산당만적강온폭도，진이예측차일최저기온。거복청50다년적자료통계분석결과표명：（1）년도겁단최저기온동당만20점적온차여동시차적상대습도상관최위밀절，고가용20점적상대습도래고산당만적강온폭도，결합당만20점적기온편가예측차일릉신가능출현적최저기온；（2）거각향진자동참동시기상국적저온차，가예측각향진차일릉신적최저기온，해저온약저우당지적주재과수화경제작물동（한）해지표，가고지과농혹농호，요채취분관（혹관수）、훈연등방동조시，이피면혹감경인저온조성적동（한）해。작위림근예보적보충공구대제고저온예보정도대유보익，가위과농혹농호채취방동（한）해조시제공의거。
In order to nowcast the lowest temperature correctly, and then provide early freeters’freezing injury to famers, the author analyzed the correlation between the temperature difference of annual lowest temperature and the temperature at 8:00 pm of the same night and the weather condition of that night, estimated the range of temperature dropping of that night, and finally got the lowest temperature of the next day. The analysis of data of more than 50 years of Fuqing showed that: (1) the temperature difference of annual lowest temperature and the temperature at 8:00 pm of the same night had the closet correlation with the relative humidity of the same time, so the relative humidity at 8:00 pm could be used to estimate the temperature dropping, then combined with the temperature at 8:00 pm, the lowest temperature of the next morning could be predicted. (2) By analyzing the difference of low temperature between the temperature of primary observation station and the temperature of different automated observation station installed in different towns, the lowest temperature of respective towns could be predicted. If the predicted low temperature was lower than the freezing injury index of local principle fruiters and crops, the fruit growers and farmers could be informed the freeze-proofing measures which included sprinkling irrigation and fumigation, the freezing injury caused by low temperature could be avoided or be mitigated. The study could be an additional tool for nowcasting, could enhance the ability of low temperature prediction, and provide the freezing injury mitigation basis for the fruit growers and farmers.