中国农学通报
中國農學通報
중국농학통보
CHINESE AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE BULLETIN
2013年
17期
208-216
,共9页
安徽省%淮北平原%夏玉米%旱涝指标%评估
安徽省%淮北平原%夏玉米%旱澇指標%評估
안휘성%회북평원%하옥미%한로지표%평고
Anhui Province%Huaibei Plain%maize%the climate index about drought and flood%assessment
为给淮北平原夏玉米高产稳产和防灾减灾以及保险理赔等工作提供参考依据，利用1961—2010年安徽省淮北平原夏玉米生育期间降水资料，采用积分回归分析方法确定了逐旬降水量对夏玉米的增产或减产效应及其影响的关键时段，同时采取降水概率≤20%与≥80%分位数法设计了夏玉米不同生育时段及其全生育期间旱与涝的气候指标，统计分析了夏玉米旱与涝灾的区域分布和灾损率及其风险分布特征。结果表明：淮北平原夏玉米生育期间逐旬降水量的负效应多于正效应，抽雄—乳熟期间降水对夏玉米产量影响显著，期间发生旱或涝灾的减产率分别为12.6%和16.3%。淮北平原夏玉米播种—出苗、苗期—拔节、拔节—抽雄、抽雄—成熟和全生育期旱灾与涝灾的气候指标分别是各自时段内的降水总量≤17.0、≤50.0、≤95.0、≤110.0、≤370.0 mm和≥95.0、≥235.0、≥265.0、≥280.0、≥740.0 mm。淮北平原夏玉米生育期间涝灾多于旱灾，且旱灾与涝灾风险分别呈经向和纬向分布，全生育期旱灾与涝灾的气象相对减产率分别为-22.4%和-28.9%，其他生育时段旱与涝灾的气象相对减产率在-8%~-16%之间。
為給淮北平原夏玉米高產穩產和防災減災以及保險理賠等工作提供參攷依據，利用1961—2010年安徽省淮北平原夏玉米生育期間降水資料，採用積分迴歸分析方法確定瞭逐旬降水量對夏玉米的增產或減產效應及其影響的關鍵時段，同時採取降水概率≤20%與≥80%分位數法設計瞭夏玉米不同生育時段及其全生育期間旱與澇的氣候指標，統計分析瞭夏玉米旱與澇災的區域分佈和災損率及其風險分佈特徵。結果錶明：淮北平原夏玉米生育期間逐旬降水量的負效應多于正效應，抽雄—乳熟期間降水對夏玉米產量影響顯著，期間髮生旱或澇災的減產率分彆為12.6%和16.3%。淮北平原夏玉米播種—齣苗、苗期—拔節、拔節—抽雄、抽雄—成熟和全生育期旱災與澇災的氣候指標分彆是各自時段內的降水總量≤17.0、≤50.0、≤95.0、≤110.0、≤370.0 mm和≥95.0、≥235.0、≥265.0、≥280.0、≥740.0 mm。淮北平原夏玉米生育期間澇災多于旱災，且旱災與澇災風險分彆呈經嚮和緯嚮分佈，全生育期旱災與澇災的氣象相對減產率分彆為-22.4%和-28.9%，其他生育時段旱與澇災的氣象相對減產率在-8%~-16%之間。
위급회북평원하옥미고산은산화방재감재이급보험리배등공작제공삼고의거，이용1961—2010년안휘성회북평원하옥미생육기간강수자료，채용적분회귀분석방법학정료축순강수량대하옥미적증산혹감산효응급기영향적관건시단，동시채취강수개솔≤20%여≥80%분위수법설계료하옥미불동생육시단급기전생육기간한여로적기후지표，통계분석료하옥미한여로재적구역분포화재손솔급기풍험분포특정。결과표명：회북평원하옥미생육기간축순강수량적부효응다우정효응，추웅—유숙기간강수대하옥미산량영향현저，기간발생한혹로재적감산솔분별위12.6%화16.3%。회북평원하옥미파충—출묘、묘기—발절、발절—추웅、추웅—성숙화전생육기한재여로재적기후지표분별시각자시단내적강수총량≤17.0、≤50.0、≤95.0、≤110.0、≤370.0 mm화≥95.0、≥235.0、≥265.0、≥280.0、≥740.0 mm。회북평원하옥미생육기간로재다우한재，차한재여로재풍험분별정경향화위향분포，전생육기한재여로재적기상상대감산솔분별위-22.4%화-28.9%，기타생육시단한여로재적기상상대감산솔재-8%~-16%지간。
To provide the scientific basis for inducting the corn production and insurance claims in Huaibei Plain, based on the precipitation data during summer maize’s growth season in Huaibei Plain from 1961 to 2010, this paper disclosed the output effect of ten-days rainfall to maize yield and its key period of time by means of integral regression method, and obtained the climate index about drought and flood in different growth stages as well as the whole period by percentile method of precipitation probability less than 20% and more than 80%, meanwhile, this paper also analyzed the area distribution of drought and flood as well as the maize yield loss and its risk distribution. The results showed that, the ten-days rainfall had more negative effect than positive effect during summer maize’s growth season in Huaibei Plain, the precipitation from tassel appearance to milky of maize had significant effect on maize’s yield, when the drought and flood could cause yield reduction of 12.6% and 16.3% respectively. In Huaibei Plain, the climate index about drought and flood in different corn stages (sowing-seeding stage, seeding-jointing stage, jointing-tassel appearance stage, tassel appearance-maturity stage and the whole period) were that, the total rainfall during the corresponding stage was ≤17.0, ≤50.0, ≤95.0, ≤110.0, ≤370.0 mm and ≥95.0, ≥235.0, ≥265.0, ≥280.0, ≥740.0 mm respectively. There was more flood than drought during maize’s growth season in Huaibei Plain, and the risk had a warp and weft distribution, the relative reduction rate caused by drought and flood in maize’s whole growth stage was -22.4% and -28.9% respectively, and in other stages the relative reduction rate was between -8% and -16%.
