中国农学通报
中國農學通報
중국농학통보
CHINESE AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE BULLETIN
2013年
17期
202-207
,共6页
杨萌%宋欣%王文波%杨可栋%王焕毅%王鹏
楊萌%宋訢%王文波%楊可棟%王煥毅%王鵬
양맹%송흔%왕문파%양가동%왕환의%왕붕
暴雨%中尺度高空槽%副热带高压
暴雨%中呎度高空槽%副熱帶高壓
폭우%중척도고공조%부열대고압
torrential rain%mesoscale upper-level trough%subtropical high
为了更好地研究潍坊市暴雨落区,减少暴雨灾害发生,为以后的暴雨预报工作总结经验,提高预报准确率,特对2012年7月9日临朐地区暴雨过程进行诊断分析。利用气象信息综合分析处理系统MICAPS 3.1,对常规气象资料进行剖面分析、探空分析,最后对数值预报产品进行检验,得出暴雨的产生和漏报原因。结果表明,此次暴雨产生的重要原因是中纬度短波槽带来的干冷空气与低空急流带来西南暖湿气流的叠加,同时临朐县南部沂山造成的地形影响和弥河的水汽蒸发也是其中重要原因。漏报的主要原因是由于过分依赖数值产品的降水预报和忽略中小尺度系统的演变以及对物理量场分析不深入。通过总结分析得出结论,要做好暴雨的预报必须综合考虑天气实况,重点分析各物理量,同时加强预报员对数值预报产品的订正工作。
為瞭更好地研究濰坊市暴雨落區,減少暴雨災害髮生,為以後的暴雨預報工作總結經驗,提高預報準確率,特對2012年7月9日臨朐地區暴雨過程進行診斷分析。利用氣象信息綜閤分析處理繫統MICAPS 3.1,對常規氣象資料進行剖麵分析、探空分析,最後對數值預報產品進行檢驗,得齣暴雨的產生和漏報原因。結果錶明,此次暴雨產生的重要原因是中緯度短波槽帶來的榦冷空氣與低空急流帶來西南暖濕氣流的疊加,同時臨朐縣南部沂山造成的地形影響和瀰河的水汽蒸髮也是其中重要原因。漏報的主要原因是由于過分依賴數值產品的降水預報和忽略中小呎度繫統的縯變以及對物理量場分析不深入。通過總結分析得齣結論,要做好暴雨的預報必鬚綜閤攷慮天氣實況,重點分析各物理量,同時加彊預報員對數值預報產品的訂正工作。
위료경호지연구유방시폭우락구,감소폭우재해발생,위이후적폭우예보공작총결경험,제고예보준학솔,특대2012년7월9일림구지구폭우과정진행진단분석。이용기상신식종합분석처리계통MICAPS 3.1,대상규기상자료진행부면분석、탐공분석,최후대수치예보산품진행검험,득출폭우적산생화루보원인。결과표명,차차폭우산생적중요원인시중위도단파조대래적간랭공기여저공급류대래서남난습기류적첩가,동시림구현남부기산조성적지형영향화미하적수기증발야시기중중요원인。루보적주요원인시유우과분의뢰수치산품적강수예보화홀략중소척도계통적연변이급대물리량장분석불심입。통과총결분석득출결론,요주호폭우적예보필수종합고필천기실황,중점분석각물리량,동시가강예보원대수치예보산품적정정공작。
In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future, the author made especially a diagnosis about the process of the torrential rain. The author took the method and had an analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data by using a meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system 3.1 and had finally an inspection of numerical weather prediction, which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain. The results showed that: the important reason of the torrential rain with the southern Yishan and indemnity river was commonly effected by cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet stream. It was the main reason of the omission of torrential rain that the author relied excessively on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field. Above all, the author could draw the conclusion that it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain. Besides, people should improve forecaster to revise the work of the numerical weather prediction.