CAJ | 학술논문

　　为了更好地研究潍坊市暴雨落区，减少暴雨灾害发生，为以后的暴雨预报工作总结经验，提高预报准确率，特对2012年7月9日临朐地区暴雨过程进行诊断分析。利用气象信息综合分析处理系统MICAPS 3.1，对常规气象资料进行剖面分析、探空分析，最后对数值预报产品进行检验，得出暴雨的产生和漏报原因。结果表明，此次暴雨产生的重要原因是中纬度短波槽带来的干冷空气与低空急流带来西南暖湿气流的叠加，同时临朐县南部沂山造成的地形影响和弥河的水汽蒸发也是其中重要原因。漏报的主要原因是由于过分依赖数值产品的降水预报和忽略中小尺度系统的演变以及对物理量场分析不深入。通过总结分析得出结论，要做好暴雨的预报必须综合考虑天气实况，重点分析各物理量，同时加强预报员对数值预报产品的订正工作。
　　위료경호지연구유방시폭우락구，감소폭우재해발생，위이후적폭우예보공작총결경험，제고예보준학솔，특대2012년7월9일림구지구폭우과정진행진단분석。이용기상신식종합분석처리계통MICAPS 3.1，대상규기상자료진행부면분석、탐공분석，최후대수치예보산품진행검험，득출폭우적산생화루보원인。결과표명，차차폭우산생적중요원인시중위도단파조대래적간랭공기여저공급류대래서남난습기류적첩가，동시림구현남부기산조성적지형영향화미하적수기증발야시기중중요원인。루보적주요원인시유우과분의뢰수치산품적강수예보화홀략중소척도계통적연변이급대물리량장분석불심입。통과총결분석득출결론，요주호폭우적예보필수종합고필천기실황，중점분석각물리량，동시가강예보원대수치예보산품적정정공작。
In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future, the author made especially a diagnosis about the process of the torrential rain. The author took the method and had an analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data by using a meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system 3.1 and had finally an inspection of numerical weather prediction, which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain. The results showed that: the important reason of the torrential rain with the southern Yishan and indemnity river was commonly effected by cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet stream. It was the main reason of the omission of torrential rain that the author relied excessively on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field. Above all, the author could draw the conclusion that it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain. Besides, people should improve forecaster to revise the work of the numerical weather prediction.