CAJ | 학술논문

　　生猪养殖业在中国具有举足轻重的地位。近年来生猪市场价格波动频繁，对国民经济平稳运行和产业良性发展具有一定影响。通过对相关文献进行梳理可知，生猪价格波动具有内生性、外生性因素，进而笔者提出以经济学理论研究生猪价格波动的成因。蛛网模型是解释农产品价格波动的主要工具。以2000年1月—2012年7月的数据为分析对象，发现中国生猪价格波动呈现出整体发散，但局部封闭、收敛的“蛛网紊乱”状态，认为这与中国宏观经济环境的变化，尤其是以利率为代表的货币政策的变化有密切关联。通过仔猪和饲料价格变化分析养殖户的行为，以及根据宏观劳动需求与产量供给分析真实工资与生猪养殖行业之间的关系，是2种探索性的解释，有助于弥补蛛网模型的不足。
　　생저양식업재중국구유거족경중적지위。근년래생저시장개격파동빈번，대국민경제평은운행화산업량성발전구유일정영향。통과대상관문헌진행소리가지，생저개격파동구유내생성、외생성인소，진이필자제출이경제학이론연구생저개격파동적성인。주망모형시해석농산품개격파동적주요공구。이2000년1월—2012년7월적수거위분석대상，발현중국생저개격파동정현출정체발산，단국부봉폐、수렴적“주망문란”상태，인위저여중국굉관경제배경적변화，우기시이리솔위대표적화폐정책적변화유밀절관련。통과자저화사료개격변화분석양식호적행위，이급근거굉관노동수구여산량공급분석진실공자여생저양식행업지간적관계，시2충탐색성적해석，유조우미보주망모형적불족。
Pig farming industry has an important position in China. The frequent fluctuation of pig price in recent years has certain impact on smooth running of national economy and healthy development of pig farming industry. Known from studying the relevant literatures, there were both endogenous and exogenous factors in fluctuation of pig price, and then the paper proposed to study the causes of fluctuation of pig price using theories of economics. Cobweb model was a principal tool to explain price fluctuation of agricultural products. By analyzing data from January, 2000 to July, 2012, it was found that the fluctuation of pig price in China presents a state of“cobweb disturbance”showing divergent case in general while convergent case and closed case in certain periods of time. It was believed that this phenomenon was closely related to change of macroeconomic environment in China, particularly the change of monetary policy represented by the interest rate. By analyzing pig farmer’s behavior to price change of piglet and feed, and analyzing relation between real wage and pig farming industry from the angle of macro labor demand and goods supply, the paper brought up two new exploratory explanations which were helpful to supplement the deficiency of cobweb model.