CAJ | 학술논문

　　为了有效利用气候资源，趋利避害，合理规划和发展陕西苹果产业；同时促进县域苹果种植布局优化，健康、可持续生产，依据5个苹果种植代表县县站与其境内区域站花期气温的关系，进行概率移植，借助各代表县县站1971—2012年花期气温数据，计算获得各代表县县站及其境内区域站苹果不同等级花期冻害的发生概率。根据对100多个历史灾害个例的分析结果，分别赋予苹果花期轻度、中度、重度等级冻害0.1、0.3、0.5的灾损系数。依据气候致灾风险的基本原理和模型，计算获得各代表县县站及其境内区域站的花期冻害风险指数，并基于GIS系统制作了各代表县的降尺度苹果花期冻害风险分布图。
　　위료유효이용기후자원，추리피해，합리규화화발전협서평과산업；동시촉진현역평과충식포국우화，건강、가지속생산，의거5개평과충식대표현현참여기경내구역참화기기온적관계，진행개솔이식，차조각대표현현참1971—2012년화기기온수거，계산획득각대표현현참급기경내구역참평과불동등급화기동해적발생개솔。근거대100다개역사재해개례적분석결과，분별부여평과화기경도、중도、중도등급동해0.1、0.3、0.5적재손계수。의거기후치재풍험적기본원리화모형，계산획득각대표현현참급기경내구역참적화기동해풍험지수，병기우GIS계통제작료각대표현적강척도평과화기동해풍험분포도。
In order to use climate resources effectively and pursue the interests while avoiding disadvantages, planning and development Shaanxi apple industry reasonably, and promoting apple planting layout optimization and product healthfully and sustainably in county level. According to the relationship of flowering temperature of 5 apple plant counties which on behalf of the apple planting base its weather stations and it’s regional automatic weather stations, applying transplanting probability, borrowing the florescence temperature data from 1971 to 2012 of 5 apple plant counties’weather stations, calculated and get the apple’flowering frost damage probability of different levels of 5 apple plant counties’weather stations and it’s regional automatic weather stations. According to the analyzing results of 100 historical disaster cases of apple, endowing 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 as mild, moderate, severe apple florescence frost damage’loss coefficients. On the basis of the fundamental and model of climate hazard risk, the author calculated and get the apple’flowering frost damage risk index of 5 apple plant counties’weather stations and it’s regional automatic weather stations, and based on GIS system produced the apple flowering frost damage risk maps down-scaling of 5 apple plant counties.