CAJ | 학술논문

　　为了全面掌握陕西冬小麦种植区干热风灾害的基本特征，依据干热风气象灾害指标，利用1981—2010年近30年的气象资料，统计分析了陕北南部及秦岭以北的冬小麦主要种植区，共44个县区干热风的年际变化规律和空间分布特点，应用GIS技术研制了干热风区划图，并以富平县为例利用灾变预测方法预测未来重干热风的发生年份。结果表明，陕西冬小麦干热风自20世纪90年代中期开始有加重趋势，且年发生次数趋于稳定，主要发生区域在关中东部，陕北南部和关中中部次之，关中西部最少。
　　위료전면장악협서동소맥충식구간열풍재해적기본특정，의거간열풍기상재해지표，이용1981—2010년근30년적기상자료，통계분석료협북남부급진령이북적동소맥주요충식구，공44개현구간열풍적년제변화규률화공간분포특점，응용GIS기술연제료간열풍구화도，병이부평현위례이용재변예측방법예측미래중간열풍적발생년빈。결과표명，협서동소맥간열풍자20세기90년대중기개시유가중추세，차년발생차수추우은정，주요발생구역재관중동부，협북남부화관중중부차지，관중서부최소。
In order to wholly master the basic character of the dry-hot-wind in winter wheat planted areas in Shaanxi Province, according to dry-hot-wind climatic disaster indexes of winter wheat, the author analyzed the yearly and space distribution characteristics of 44 counties in south of northern Shaanxi and north side of Qingling, by using climate data from 1981 to 2010, and used GIS technology to made the climatic regionalization of dry-hot-wind of winter wheat. Fuping future severe dry-hot-wind year was predicted by grey disaster forecast model as an example. The results showed that: the occurrences of dry-hot-wind had the increase trend since 1990s and the occurrence times tended to be stable. The main district of dry-hot-wind is in east of Guanzhong, south of northern Shaanxi and middle of Guanzhong took second places, the lowest district was in west of Guanzhong.