CAJ | 학술논문

　　为了增强陕西各苹果产区精确防御花期冻害的能力，有效提高苹果产量和品质，促进陕西苹果产业稳定、持续、健康发展，依据统计分析原理，对陕西各苹果产区花期和花期前的各项气温因子进行详细的相关性分析。结果显示：陕西苹果花期前0~5℃的活动/有效积温与真实花期的相关性好于0~5℃天数与真实花期的相关性；0~5℃的活动/有效积温越靠近真实花期，其与真实花期的相关性越显著；从0℃至5℃各活动/有效积温与苹果花期的相关性呈增高趋势；各有效积温因子与苹果花期相关性好于活动积温因子与苹果花期的相关性。基于以上分析结果，分果区建立了陕西苹果的花期预测模型，并通过回代和预测对模型进行检验。检验结果显示平均误差小于3天，预测结果可为实际生产中苹果花期防灾减灾工作的开展提供参考。
　　위료증강협서각평과산구정학방어화기동해적능력，유효제고평과산량화품질，촉진협서평과산업은정、지속、건강발전，의거통계분석원리，대협서각평과산구화기화화기전적각항기온인자진행상세적상관성분석。결과현시：협서평과화기전0~5℃적활동/유효적온여진실화기적상관성호우0~5℃천수여진실화기적상관성；0~5℃적활동/유효적온월고근진실화기，기여진실화기적상관성월현저；종0℃지5℃각활동/유효적온여평과화기적상관성정증고추세；각유효적온인자여평과화기상관성호우활동적온인자여평과화기적상관성。기우이상분석결과，분과구건립료협서평과적화기예측모형，병통과회대화예측대모형진행검험。검험결과현시평균오차소우3천，예측결과가위실제생산중평과화기방재감재공작적개전제공삼고。
In order to enhance the ability of defenses apple flowering frost damage accurately and improve the apple yield and quality effectively and promote Shaanxi apple industry development stably, sustainably and healthily, based on the principles of statistical analysis, the correlation between apple florescence and the temperature factors before apple florescence were analyzed about all apple producing areas in Shaanxi. The results showed, the correlation between 0-5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence were better than the correlation between 0-5℃ days before apple florescence and actual florescence; the correlation between 0-5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence were increasingly significant by they were closing to actual florescence; from 0℃ to 5℃, the correlation between 0-5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence were showing increasing tendency; the correlation between 0-5℃effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence were better than the correlation between 0-5℃ active accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence. Based on the above analysis results, established the Shaanxi apple’s flowering prediction models about different producing areas, and tested the models using back substitution and prediction. The test results indicated that average error was less than 3 days and the forecast results provided a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation during the apple florescence.