CAJ | 학술논문

　　文章采用向量误差修正（VEC）模型等方法，细致深入的分析新疆328级皮棉价格与国际棉价之间的关系。结果表明，国际棉价对新疆棉价影响甚大，主要原因是我国对进口棉价的依赖性越来越高，国际棉价的波动导致棉花进口的波动，从而传导到新疆棉花市场，引起了新疆和其它主要产区棉价的波动，而国际棉价受国内和新疆棉价市场均衡关系的影响不显著。
　　문장채용향량오차수정（VEC）모형등방법，세치심입적분석신강328급피면개격여국제면개지간적관계。결과표명，국제면개대신강면개영향심대，주요원인시아국대진구면개적의뢰성월래월고，국제면개적파동도치면화진구적파동，종이전도도신강면화시장，인기료신강화기타주요산구면개적파동，이국제면개수국내화신강면개시장균형관계적영향불현저。
This paper is to analysis the dynamic relationship between Xinjiang and international cotton market price after China entering into WTO by using the co-integration test, error correction model and impulse response function method. The results show that the relationship of Xinjiang cotton price and international cotton price is a long-term equilibrium, in which the international cotton price fluctuation has a strong impact on the Xinjiang market mainly because China come to depend more imports while the international cotton price receives little influence by China’s and Xinjiang’s cotton markets.