CAJ | 학술논문

　　矿井工作面瓦斯涌出是一个动态不确定的过程，因此最新瓦斯涌出数据的研究至关重要，本文将灰色GM（1,1）模型瓦斯涌出量预测结果加入原始数列，对原始数据序列的信息进行更新，建立了矿井瓦斯涌出量GM（1,1）新陈代谢动态预测模型，采用残差检验法对该模型精度进行检验，其平均相对误差为3.861%，预测精度明显优于GM（1,1）模型，提高了灰色GM（1,1）模型预测瓦斯涌出量的精度。
　　광정공작면와사용출시일개동태불학정적과정，인차최신와사용출수거적연구지관중요，본문장회색GM（1,1）모형와사용출량예측결과가입원시수렬，대원시수거서렬적신식진행경신，건립료광정와사용출량GM（1,1）신진대사동태예측모형，채용잔차검험법대해모형정도진행검험，기평균상대오차위3.861%，예측정도명현우우GM（1,1）모형，제고료회색GM（1,1）모형예측와사용출량적정도。
In order to improve the accuracy of the gray GM (1,1) model for predicting the coalface gas emission, by the way of adding the new prediction data from the gray GM (1,1) model, and remove the old data, the gray GM (1,1) metabolism model for predicting the gas emission is established in the paper. Tested by residual analysis, the average relative error of the model gray GM (1,1) metabolism model is 3.861%, meet the accuracy requirement of the gray theory model.At the same time, compared with the grey GM (1, 1) model, the prediction results show that the average relative error of the GM (1,1) metabolism model is lower, and the precision accuracy of the GM (1,1) metabolism model is ob-viously superior to the gray GM (1,1) model.