CAJ | 학술논문

　　研究我国产业部门CO2的排放特征及其影响因素，对我国的温室气体减排具有重要意义。为此对1990～2011年我国三次产业、第二产业、轻重工业以及工业分行业的CO2排放量进行了推算，并运用完全因素分解模型，将影响我国产业部门CO2排放的因素分为经济因素、结构因素、效率因素和排放因素，对历年各因素的影响效果进行了量化研究，得出以下结论：我国产业部门CO2排放主要来自第二产业，第二产业中CO2排放主要来自工业，工业中的CO2排放主要来自重工业，重工业中的CO2排放主要来自石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业，化学原料及化学制品制造业，非金属矿物制品业，黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业，有色金属冶炼及压延加工业和电力、热力的生产和供应业6个重点行业；经济因素是我国产业部门CO2排放量增加的最主要影响因素，目前我国产业部门CO2减排主要依靠效率因素，结构因素和排放因素的作用都不明显；控制我国CO2排放量的快速增长，转变经济增长方式是重要途径，产业及行业结构调整将成为中国未来减排的关键。
　　연구아국산업부문CO2적배방특정급기영향인소，대아국적온실기체감배구유중요의의。위차대1990～2011년아국삼차산업、제이산업、경중공업이급공업분행업적CO2배방량진행료추산，병운용완전인소분해모형，장영향아국산업부문CO2배방적인소분위경제인소、결구인소、효솔인소화배방인소，대력년각인소적영향효과진행료양화연구，득출이하결론：아국산업부문CO2배방주요래자제이산업，제이산업중CO2배방주요래자공업，공업중적CO2배방주요래자중공업，중공업중적CO2배방주요래자석유가공、련초급핵연료가공업，화학원료급화학제품제조업，비금속광물제품업，흑색금속야련급압연가공업，유색금속야련급압연가공업화전력、열력적생산화공응업6개중점행업；경제인소시아국산업부문CO2배방량증가적최주요영향인소，목전아국산업부문CO2감배주요의고효솔인소，결구인소화배방인소적작용도불명현；공제아국CO2배방량적쾌속증장，전변경제증장방식시중요도경，산업급행업결구조정장성위중국미래감배적관건。
Research on CO2 emissions characteristics of industrial sectors in China and their influencing factors is important for China′s greenhouse gas emissions reduction .The CO2 emissions from energy consumption of China′s three industries ,the secondary industry ,light industry ,heavy industry and industrial trades ,are calculated on the basis of the statistical data from 1990 to 2011 . T he factors influencing the CO2 emissions of industrial sectors are decomposed into economy factor , structure factor ,efficiency factor and emission factor through the complete decomposition model .And then ,the effects of these factors over years are quantitatively analyzed .The analytical results show that ,firstly ,China′s industrial sectors′CO2 emissions are mainly from the secondary industry w hose emissions are from industry mostly .And further ,the industry′s CO2 emissions are mostly from heavy industry ,such as these six major trades (processing of petroleum ,coking ,processing of nuclear fuel industry ,manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemicals ,manufacture of non‐metallic mineral products ,smelting and pressing of ferrous metals , smelting and pressing of non‐ferrous metals , production and supply of electric power and heat power ) .Secondly ,economy factor contributes to the CO2 emissions increase .Structure factor and emission factor play an insignificant role in CO 2 emissions reduction .China′s CO2 emissions reduction relies mainly on efficiency factor during the inspection period .Finally ,changing the mode of economic growth is an effective way to slow down the rapid grow th of China′s CO2 emissions .So structure adjustment of industries and trades will be the key to China′s emissions reduction in future .