CAJ | 학술논문

　　一种基于泄漏后破裂（LBB ）的马尔可夫模型被应用于研究过程工业中的维修活动对于管道失效概率的影响，该模型可以预测复杂维修方案（包含带压堵漏等内容）对于管道失效概率的影响，这对于维修方案的定量评估有重要意义。根据中国石化企业中的管道维修特点，将管道状态分为完好、可探测缺陷、泄漏和破裂4种状态，相应地建立了LBB四状态马尔可夫模型，进而推导出了在维修方案影响下管道失效概率随时间变化的常微分方程，并应用盛金公式求解该微分方程，最后通过一个管道减薄维修的案例验证了该马尔可夫模型计算结果的可靠性。
　　일충기우설루후파렬（LBB ）적마이가부모형피응용우연구과정공업중적유수활동대우관도실효개솔적영향，해모형가이예측복잡유수방안（포함대압도루등내용）대우관도실효개솔적영향，저대우유수방안적정량평고유중요의의。근거중국석화기업중적관도유수특점，장관도상태분위완호、가탐측결함、설루화파렬4충상태，상응지건립료LBB사상태마이가부모형，진이추도출료재유수방안영향하관도실효개솔수시간변화적상미분방정，병응용성금공식구해해미분방정，최후통과일개관도감박유수적안례험증료해마이가부모형계산결과적가고성。
A Markov model based on leakage before break (LBB) is applied to study the effects of maintenance activities on the failure probability of pipe systems in process industries .The model can predict the influence of complex maintenance plans (including the pressured seal ,etc .) on the pipe failure probability ,w hich is significant for quantitative assessment of maintenance plans .According to features of pipe maintenance in petrochemical industries in China , pipe is distinguished into four states , success state , flaw state , leak state and rupture state , similarly constant coefficient differential equations have been deduced on the pipe failure probability with the time after establishing a LBB four‐states Markov model ,and these constant coefficient differential equations can be solved with Shengjin formula .At last ,a practical case is calculated applying the model in a maintenance activity of pipe thinning to testify the reliability of the model .