CAJ | 학술논문

　　根据有关研究成果，取间日疟原虫发育下限温度指标为14.5℃，恶性疟为16.0℃；取间日疟原虫有效发育临界下限温度指标为18℃，恶性疟为21℃。利用区域气候模式（RegCM3）模拟的1981-2050年日平均气温，计算稳定通过疟原虫发育和有效发育临界下限温度的初始日、终止日及其生长发育时段，预估和分析2031-2050年时段我国疟疾传播的范围与强度。结果表明：2031-2050年时段我国有效传疟季节有提前开始、延迟结束，有效传疟日数有不同程度的延长趋势。相对与1981-2000年时段有效传疟分布边界有向北和向西扩展，疟原虫繁殖代数也有增多的趋势。
　　근거유관연구성과，취간일학원충발육하한온도지표위14.5℃，악성학위16.0℃；취간일학원충유효발육림계하한온도지표위18℃，악성학위21℃。이용구역기후모식（RegCM3）모의적1981-2050년일평균기온，계산은정통과학원충발육화유효발육림계하한온도적초시일、종지일급기생장발육시단，예고화분석2031-2050년시단아국학질전파적범위여강도。결과표명：2031-2050년시단아국유효전학계절유제전개시、연지결속，유효전학일수유불동정도적연장추세。상대여1981-2000년시단유효전학분포변계유향북화향서확전，학원충번식대수야유증다적추세。
Based on some studies, taking 14.5℃ as the beginning temperature of growth of plasmodium vivax and 16.0℃ for falciparum malaria, taking 18℃ as the critical beginning temperature of effective growth of plasmodium vivax and 21℃ for falciparum malaria, the initial date, terminal date and time interval of growth, under which the critical beginning temperature of plasmodium’s growth and its effective growth were calculated and pass through steadily, were obtained from 1981 to 2050 by use of daily mean temperature simulated by RegCM3. Then the extent and intensity of transmission of malaria were analysed and estimated from 2031 to 2050. The results show the seasons of effective transmission of malaria have features of beginning earlier and ending latter, and the days of effective transmission of malaria prolonged in varying degrees to different regions from 2031 to 2050. Comparing to 1981 to 2000, the distribution border of effective transmission of malaria extends towards north and west, and the number of reproduction generations also grows larger.