CAJ | 학술논문

　　为掌握松墨天牛（Monochamus alternatus Hope）成虫在感病及正常松林中各发生期的发生时间，根据浙江省临海市3个诱捕点2007—2011年、仙居县3个诱捕点2006—2011年的松墨天牛成虫诱捕资料，分别计算每个诱捕点松墨天牛成虫的理论期距值、平均数标准差，然后用期距法预测各诱捕点2012年松墨天牛成虫的始盛期、高峰期和盛末期，临海市的预测成功率为91．67％、仙居县的预测成功率为66．67％，总预测成功率为79．17％。
　　위장악송묵천우（Monochamus alternatus Hope）성충재감병급정상송림중각발생기적발생시간，근거절강성림해시3개유포점2007—2011년、선거현3개유포점2006—2011년적송묵천우성충유포자료，분별계산매개유포점송묵천우성충적이론기거치、평균수표준차，연후용기거법예측각유포점2012년송묵천우성충적시성기、고봉기화성말기，림해시적예측성공솔위91．67％、선거현적예측성공솔위66．67％，총예측성공솔위79．17％。
An investigation was conducted to study the precise prediction of occurring time of Monochamus alternatus adults in the susceptible and normal pine forest with five-year systematic observation data in 2007-2011 at three trapping sites in the susceptible pine forest in Linhai and 6-year in 2006-2011 at three trapping sites in normal pine forest in Xianju.By using statistics methods, theoretical periodic distance and standard deviation of different adult occurring stage were calculated, and initial flourish stage, peak stage and end flourish stage of different sites in 2012 were predicted.The prediction success rate is 91.67%in Linhai, forecast success rate is 66.67%in Xianju and the overall prediction success rate is 79.17%.