CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于作为评价对象的城市社会经济环境复合系统具有多目标、多要素、动态关联等突出的系统动力学特征，选择和应用系统动力学方法开展城市发展规划环评在理论上具有可行性和技术优势。作为典型资源型城市的山西省临汾市正面临转变发展方式和加快环境治理的紧迫要求，本文依托该市转型发展规划环评工作，在全面识别和剖析城市发展要素、现状问题及其成因基础上，以经济发展、产业结构、节能减排和环境改善为重点研究了规划要素间的动态反馈关系，以此构建城市转型发展规划环评SD模型，并对4个规划替代方案进行模拟和评价。结果显示，在环境目标刚性约束下所有替代方案均不能实现人均GDP翻番的较高经济增长目标，其中以较强环境约束为特征的“方案III”具有最好的环境与经济综合效果。据此评价建议临汾市应在确保实现环境改善目标的前提下主动放缓工业增长速度，同时加快以“煤焦铁电”为代表的主导产业结构调整并继续加大节能减排力度，全面提高城市可持续发展能力。
감우작위평개대상적성시사회경제배경복합계통구유다목표、다요소、동태관련등돌출적계통동역학특정，선택화응용계통동역학방법개전성시발전규화배평재이론상구유가행성화기술우세。작위전형자원형성시적산서성림분시정면림전변발전방식화가쾌배경치리적긴박요구，본문의탁해시전형발전규화배평공작，재전면식별화부석성시발전요소、현상문제급기성인기출상，이경제발전、산업결구、절능감배화배경개선위중점연구료규화요소간적동태반궤관계，이차구건성시전형발전규화배평SD모형，병대4개규화체대방안진행모의화평개。결과현시，재배경목표강성약속하소유체대방안균불능실현인균GDP번번적교고경제증장목표，기중이교강배경약속위특정적“방안III”구유최호적배경여경제종합효과。거차평개건의림분시응재학보실현배경개선목표적전제하주동방완공업증장속도，동시가쾌이“매초철전”위대표적주도산업결구조정병계속가대절능감배력도，전면제고성시가지속발전능력。
Regarding the obvious features of multi-objectives, multi-elements and dynamic interlinks presented by urban complex system of society, economy and environment, the system dynamics (SD) method might be of great potential when applied into planning environmental impact assessment (PEIA) of urban plans due to the good theoretic feasibility and technical advantages. As a typical resource-based city in Shanxi province, Linfen was soliciting an imperative development transition and environmental treatment. Here, based on a comprehensive analysis of key development elements, current problems and driving factors of the city, the dynamic feedback relationships were first screened out among economic development, industrial restructure, energy saving and emission reduction, and environmental improvement. And then, a SD model was built up to simulate and assess the four proposed planning alternatives of urban transformation and development of Linfen. The results showed that if the maximum environmental restrains were employed, all the four alternatives would not be able to fulfill the planned growth targets featured by doubled per capita GDP. If the harder environmental restrains were adopted, the alternative III among the four would produce the best integrative effects on environment and economy of the city. Accordingly, the PEIA recommended the city to ensure the planned environmental improvements by slowing down the economic growth, restructuring the main industries represented by coal, coke and iron productions and power generations, strengthening energy saving and emission reduction, and lifting urban capacity of sustainable development.