CAJ | 학술논문

　　为分析城市温室气体减排潜力提供基本方法和数据，以天津市为例，把温室气体排放源分为能源活动、工业生产、农业和废物等4个单元，提供了一套城市温室气体清单编制方法，并对城市主要碳源和碳强度进行分析．结果表明：如果天津市经济和温室气体排放维持近10年的平均增长速度，或可达到国务院提出的“十二五”减排目标；但由于诸多不确定性因素的存在，要实现减排目标还需挖掘减排潜力；天津能源消耗产生的温室气体占总排放量的72.2%，而按行业计算，工业产生的温室气体占总排量的77.9%．因此对主要工业碳源推行试点碳审计，制定行业碳排放标准，提高能源效率，降低能耗，是温室气体减排的关键因素．
　　위분석성시온실기체감배잠력제공기본방법화수거，이천진시위례，파온실기체배방원분위능원활동、공업생산、농업화폐물등4개단원，제공료일투성시온실기체청단편제방법，병대성시주요탄원화탄강도진행분석．결과표명：여과천진시경제화온실기체배방유지근10년적평균증장속도，혹가체도국무원제출적“십이오”감배목표；단유우제다불학정성인소적존재，요실현감배목표환수알굴감배잠력；천진능원소모산생적온실기체점총배방량적72.2%，이안행업계산，공업산생적온실기체점총배량적77.9%．인차대주요공업탄원추행시점탄심계，제정행업탄배방표준，제고능원효솔，강저능모，시온실기체감배적관건인소．
Basic analysis methods and fundamental data were provided for the analysis of municipal carbon reduction potentials based on the case of Tianjin. Greenhouse gas emissions were categorized into four sections:energy activity,industry,agriculture and waste. The municipal greenhouse gases inventory method was then proposed to analyze the main carbon sources and carbon intensity of the city. The results show that,if Tianjin could keep the av-erage growth rate of Gross Domestic Production and greenhouse emissions,its carbon intensity might achieve the goal of the Twelfth Five years greenhouse gases mitigation plan. However,with some uncertainties,further meas-ures should be taken to develop the emission reduction potential. Greenhouse gases from energy consumptions ac-counted for 72.2%of the total emission,and those from the industry accounted for 77.9%of the total. Therefore, some pilot programs should be set for assessing the main carbon sources of industry. The carbon emission benchmarks will then be proposed. Meanwhile,improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption will help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.