CAJ | 학술논문

　　土石围堰边坡稳定受堰体土石料力学性质、施工洪水及导流建筑物泄流能力等多种不确定性因素影响，为进行更全面、准确的风险估计，综合考虑水文、水力和土石料力学参数的随机性，在分析相关参数的分布形式和统计特征值的基础上，通过 Monte-Carlo 方法耦合仿真分析堰前水位分布和围堰边坡稳定性，建立土石围堰边坡稳定多因素综合风险计算模型，统计分析度汛期间土石围堰边坡稳定综合风险。实例分析表明，该模型计算的围堰边坡稳定综合风险率小于仅考虑单个随机因素的边坡稳定风险率，更准确地反映了实际工程土石围堰边坡稳定状态。
　　토석위언변파은정수언체토석료역학성질、시공홍수급도류건축물설류능력등다충불학정성인소영향，위진행경전면、준학적풍험고계，종합고필수문、수력화토석료역학삼수적수궤성，재분석상관삼수적분포형식화통계특정치적기출상，통과 Monte-Carlo 방법우합방진분석언전수위분포화위언변파은정성，건립토석위언변파은정다인소종합풍험계산모형，통계분석도신기간토석위언변파은정종합풍험。실례분석표명，해모형계산적위언변파은정종합풍험솔소우부고필단개수궤인소적변파은정풍험솔，경준학지반영료실제공정토석위언변파은정상태。
The slope stability of rock-fill cofferdam is related to many random factors,such as mechanical properties of cofferdam filling materials,flood of construction period,and flood discharge of diversion structures. In order to estimate the risk of cofferdam slope stability more precisely and roundly,the uncertainty of hydrology,hydraulics and earth-rock mechanics parameters was considered by analyzing their probability distribution forms and statistical characteristics,and then water-level upstream distribution and cofferdam slope stability were simulated synthetically by Monte-Carlo method to establish the comprehensive risk model for rock-fill cofferdam slope stability,which was used to analyze the comprehensive risk of rock-fill cofferdam slope stability during flood season. The case study shows that the comprehensive risk of rock-fill cofferdam slope stability calculated by the model is smaller than the risk with only random factor considered,and the comprehensive risk can more accurately reflect the stability condition of rock-fill cofferdam slope in practical projects.