CAJ | 학술논문

本文系统回顾了2013年汛期气候预测的主要先兆信号。其信号特征是：2013年前期赤道中东太平洋呈正常略偏冷的状态、冬季北极海冰异常偏少、青藏高原积雪偏少，这些特征对后期东亚夏季风有明显影响。通过对前期先兆信号的分析，国家气候中心比较准确地预测了东亚夏季风偏强、我国夏季主要多雨带偏北的特征，以及南海夏季风爆发偏早、长江中下游入梅偏晚且雨量少雨期短、华北雨季提前雨量偏多的季节内过程演变趋势。最后对汛期气候预测存在的不足进行了分析和讨论。
본문계통회고료2013년신기기후예측적주요선조신호。기신호특정시：2013년전기적도중동태평양정정상략편랭적상태、동계북겁해빙이상편소、청장고원적설편소，저사특정대후기동아하계풍유명현영향。통과대전기선조신호적분석，국가기후중심비교준학지예측료동아하계풍편강、아국하계주요다우대편북적특정，이급남해하계풍폭발편조、장강중하유입매편만차우량소우기단、화북우계제전우량편다적계절내과정연변추세。최후대신기기후예측존재적불족진행료분석화토론。
The possible precursors of the summer climate in 2013 are reviewed which are that in the winter of 2012/2013,ENSO-neutral with slightly cold condition persists in the central and eastern tropical Pacif-ic,the Arctic sea ice area is significantly less,and the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau is less than normal.These features have an important impact on the following East Asia summer monsoon.By diagno-sing and analyzing the possible influence of these precursors,the features of stronger East Asian summer monsoon and main rainfall belt locating the northern China are successfully captured in the prediction is-sued by the National Climate Centre of CMA in late March 2013.In addition,the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon is earlier,the Meiyu along the middle-low reaches of Yangtze River Valley is less with later onset and short rainfall period,and the rainy season in North China is earlier and more than normal.These intra-seasonal features are all successfully predicted.Finally,the imperfection in the sum-mer climate prediction is discussed.