CAJ | 학술논문

　　将能值与生态足迹理论相结合，引入能量折算系数，通过能值密度构建能值-生态足迹模型，并应用此模型对辽河流域2001—2010年生态承载力和生态足迹进行计算。生态承载力计算主要是自然生态承载力和本地产品产出承载力，其中自然生态承载力主要考虑可更新资源的承载力，本地产品产出承载力主要包括生物资源产出承载力和工业产品产出承载力。生态足迹的计算主要包括消费足迹和污染足迹，消费足迹主要测算生物资源消费、能源消费和水资源消费足迹。污染足迹主要测算废气和生活废水、工业废水对自然生态系统带来的负荷。测算结果表明：2001—2010年辽河流域人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹均有所增加，但是生态足迹的增长速度远远大于生态承载力，致使流域内自2001与2009年生态略有盈余外，其余年份均出现生态赤字，处于不可持续发展状态。以能值-生态足迹模型测算结果为基础，基于EViews采用自回归综合移动平均模型（ARIMA），对流域内10年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行动态模拟。首先通过ADF与PP单位根检验时间序列的平稳性；其次分析序列的自相关函数图和偏自相关函数，初步确定AR和MA的阶次；再根据R2、AIC及SC准则，进行模型参数估计并诊断分析；最后确定最佳模拟模型。以ARIMA模型预测2011—2015年辽河流域生态足迹和生态承载力的演变趋势。预测结果表明，人均生态足迹在未来5年内会继续呈直线式增长，到2015年达到7.3878 hm2，是2001年的2.16倍；而人均生态承载力在2011年之后开始下降，生态赤字继续扩大，到2015年增长到-4.16767，约为2005年的10倍，流域内不可持续发展形势会更加恶化。最后提出辽河流域生态安全建设的对策。能值-生态足迹模型测算结果与实地调研基本相符，较真实反映了辽河流域可持续发展状况。基于ARIMA模型模拟预测结果可为未来流域开发和建设提供参考依据。　　將能值與生態足跡理論相結閤，引入能量摺算繫數，通過能值密度構建能值-生態足跡模型，併應用此模型對遼河流域2001—2010年生態承載力和生態足跡進行計算。生態承載力計算主要是自然生態承載力和本地產品產齣承載力，其中自然生態承載力主要攷慮可更新資源的承載力，本地產品產齣承載力主要包括生物資源產齣承載力和工業產品產齣承載力。生態足跡的計算主要包括消費足跡和汙染足跡，消費足跡主要測算生物資源消費、能源消費和水資源消費足跡。汙染足跡主要測算廢氣和生活廢水、工業廢水對自然生態繫統帶來的負荷。測算結果錶明：2001—2010年遼河流域人均生態承載力和人均生態足跡均有所增加，但是生態足跡的增長速度遠遠大于生態承載力，緻使流域內自2001與2009年生態略有盈餘外，其餘年份均齣現生態赤字，處于不可持續髮展狀態。以能值-生態足跡模型測算結果為基礎，基于EViews採用自迴歸綜閤移動平均模型（ARIMA），對流域內10年的生態足跡和生態承載力進行動態模擬。首先通過ADF與PP單位根檢驗時間序列的平穩性；其次分析序列的自相關函數圖和偏自相關函數，初步確定AR和MA的階次；再根據R2、AIC及SC準則，進行模型參數估計併診斷分析；最後確定最佳模擬模型。以ARIMA模型預測2011—2015年遼河流域生態足跡和生態承載力的縯變趨勢。預測結果錶明，人均生態足跡在未來5年內會繼續呈直線式增長，到2015年達到7.3878 hm2，是2001年的2.16倍；而人均生態承載力在2011年之後開始下降，生態赤字繼續擴大，到2015年增長到-4.16767，約為2005年的10倍，流域內不可持續髮展形勢會更加噁化。最後提齣遼河流域生態安全建設的對策。能值-生態足跡模型測算結果與實地調研基本相符，較真實反映瞭遼河流域可持續髮展狀況。基于ARIMA模型模擬預測結果可為未來流域開髮和建設提供參攷依據。
　　장능치여생태족적이론상결합，인입능량절산계수，통과능치밀도구건능치-생태족적모형，병응용차모형대료하류역2001—2010년생태승재력화생태족적진행계산。생태승재력계산주요시자연생태승재력화본지산품산출승재력，기중자연생태승재력주요고필가경신자원적승재력，본지산품산출승재력주요포괄생물자원산출승재력화공업산품산출승재력。생태족적적계산주요포괄소비족적화오염족적，소비족적주요측산생물자원소비、능원소비화수자원소비족적。오염족적주요측산폐기화생활폐수、공업폐수대자연생태계통대래적부하。측산결과표명：2001—2010년료하류역인균생태승재력화인균생태족적균유소증가，단시생태족적적증장속도원원대우생태승재력，치사류역내자2001여2009년생태략유영여외，기여년빈균출현생태적자，처우불가지속발전상태。이능치-생태족적모형측산결과위기출，기우EViews채용자회귀종합이동평균모형（ARIMA），대류역내10년적생태족적화생태승재력진행동태모의。수선통과ADF여PP단위근검험시간서렬적평은성；기차분석서렬적자상관함수도화편자상관함수，초보학정AR화MA적계차；재근거R2、AIC급SC준칙，진행모형삼수고계병진단분석；최후학정최가모의모형。이ARIMA모형예측2011—2015년료하류역생태족적화생태승재력적연변추세。예측결과표명，인균생태족적재미래5년내회계속정직선식증장，도2015년체도7.3878 hm2，시2001년적2.16배；이인균생태승재력재2011년지후개시하강，생태적자계속확대，도2015년증장도-4.16767，약위2005년적10배，류역내불가지속발전형세회경가악화。최후제출료하류역생태안전건설적대책。능치-생태족적모형측산결과여실지조연기본상부，교진실반영료료하류역가지속발전상황。기우ARIMA모형모의예측결과가위미래류역개발화건설제공삼고의거。
In this work, Based on emergy analysis and the theory of ecological footprint, the emergy-ecological footprint model was established by the coefficient of energy conversion and emergy density. The ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint in Liaohe River basin from 2001 to 2010 were calculated via this model. The calculation of ecological carrying capacity includes the carrying capacity of natural ecological and local products output. The carrying capacity of natural ecological mainly refers to the carrying capacity of renewable resources, and the carrying capacity of local product output mainly includes the carrying capacity of biological resources and industrial products output. The calculation of the ecological footprint includes consumption footprint and pollution footprint. The consumption footprint consists of the footprint of biological resources consumption, energy consumption and water consumption, and the pollution footprint mainly calculates the load of natural ecosystems brought by exhaust gas and waste water. The results showed that the growth speed of the per capita ecological footprint was greater than one of the ecological carrying capacity. So the ecological deficit occurred in retained years except for the slight ecological surplus in 2001 and 2009. Based on the results of the emergy-ecological footprint model, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model by EViews was introduced to stimulate the dynamic evolution trend in the research region during decade years. Firstly, the stationarity of time series was inspected by Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root model. The diagram of the autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function of the sequence were analyzed, and the order time of autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) were initially identified. Then the model parameters were diagnosed and estimated according to R-squared (R2), Akanke’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion (SC). The best simulation model was determined. Secondly, the evolution trend of the ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint in Liaohe River basin from 2011 to 2015 was predicted via the ARIMA model. The results show that the per capita ecological footprint will present a significant growth in the next five years. The per capita ecological footprint will be up to 7.3878 hm2 in 2015, and this value will be 2.16 times than that of 2001. While the per capital ecological carrying capacity may present a downward trend after 2011. The value will be up to -4.167 67 hm2 in 2015 and this will be about 10 times than that of 2005. Thus the situation of unsustainable development will become worse due to expanding ecological deficit. Finally, the eco-security countermeasures of Liaohe River basin were emphasized. The results of model calculation were basically consistent with the field research, and can truly reflect the situation of sustainable development in the Liaohe River basin. The results predicted by ARMIA model stimulation can provide a reference for future watershed development and construction.