CAJ | 학술논문

　　中国沿海区域旅游产业发展主要以海洋资源和环境为依托，故处理好旅游产业发展与生态环境的关系是中国沿海旅游产业实现可持续发展的基础和前提。区域旅游化程度可以反映区域旅游产业发展水平，为探求中国沿海区域旅游产业发展与生态环境之间关系的态势和规律，首先，在构建中国沿海区域旅游化程度和生态环境质量水平的指标体系的基础上，以2000—2010年沿海11省（区）统计数据为基础，运用加权主成分TOPSIS法分别对两个系统进行综合评价；其次，基于物理学中的耦合模型，对中国沿海区域旅游化程度和生态环境质量的耦合度及其协调指数进行计算，并分析它们时空格局及其演变特征；最后，基于灰色系统理论，运用GM(1,1)预测模型对中国沿海区域未来15 a中国沿海区域旅游化水平与生态环境耦合度进行预测。研究结果发现：中国沿海区域旅游产业与生态环境两个系统在2000—2010年间一直处于拮抗期，但山东省、浙江省、江苏省和广西省将在2015年前先后由低水平的拮抗期跨入良性耦合阶段，而其他省（区）将处于并将长期处于拮抗期，且天津市、辽宁省和海南省两个系统的耦合度有下降趋势。
　　중국연해구역여유산업발전주요이해양자원화배경위의탁，고처리호여유산업발전여생태배경적관계시중국연해여유산업실현가지속발전적기출화전제。구역여유화정도가이반영구역여유산업발전수평，위탐구중국연해구역여유산업발전여생태배경지간관계적태세화규률，수선，재구건중국연해구역여유화정도화생태배경질량수평적지표체계적기출상，이2000—2010년연해11성（구）통계수거위기출，운용가권주성분TOPSIS법분별대량개계통진행종합평개；기차，기우물이학중적우합모형，대중국연해구역여유화정도화생태배경질량적우합도급기협조지수진행계산，병분석타문시공격국급기연변특정；최후，기우회색계통이론，운용GM(1,1)예측모형대중국연해구역미래15 a중국연해구역여유화수평여생태배경우합도진행예측。연구결과발현：중국연해구역여유산업여생태배경량개계통재2000—2010년간일직처우길항기，단산동성、절강성、강소성화광서성장재2015년전선후유저수평적길항기과입량성우합계단，이기타성（구）장처우병장장기처우길항기，차천진시、요녕성화해남성량개계통적우합도유하강추세。
Regional tourism development in coastal areas of China mainly rely on marine resources and the environment, so it is the basis and prerequisite for the sustainable development of China's coastal tourism industry to handle well the relationship between the development of the tourism industry and the ecological environment. The level of development of tourism industry can be reflected by the degree of tourism-oriented development. This study explores the trend and laws of relationship between the level of tourism-oriented and ecological environment in the coastal region. Firstly, the paper constructs the index system of the degree of tourism-oriented and the quality of ecological environment, and makes comprehensive evaluation of the two systems by using principal component on TOPSIS method on the basis of statistics data of 11 coastal provinces (regions) between 2000 and 2010; Secondly, calculates the coupled coordination of the level of tourism-oriented and the ecological environment based on the coupling model in physics and analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern of evolution features of it; Finally, the paper also predicts the coupling degree of the level of tourism-oriented and ecological environment in the coastal region of China in 15 years by the use of GM (1,1) forecasting model based on gray system theory. The result shows hat the coupling degree of the level of tourism-oriented and ecological environment in the coastal area of China stayed antagonistic period between 2000 and 2010. However, Shandong Province, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province and Guangxi Province will have risen from low levels of antagonistic period into the stage of benign coupled in about 2015, while other provinces (regions) will stay in the antagonistic period for a long period, and there is a downward trend in the coupling of the two systems in Tianjin, Liaoning Province and Hainan Province.