科技进步与对策
科技進步與對策
과기진보여대책
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS AND POLICY
2013年
15期
63-70
,共8页
制造业价值链%向量自回归( VAR)模型%技术创新%生产性服务业%产业集群指数%制造业规模
製造業價值鏈%嚮量自迴歸( VAR)模型%技術創新%生產性服務業%產業集群指數%製造業規模
제조업개치련%향량자회귀( VAR)모형%기술창신%생산성복무업%산업집군지수%제조업규모
Value Chain of Manufacturing Industry%Vector Auto-Regressive ( VAR) Model%Technology Innovation%Producer Services Industry%Industry Cluster Index%Manufacturing Industry Scale
以向量自回归( VAR)模型为基础，运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解和脉冲响应分析等技术，综合考察了技术创新、生产性服务业、产业集群、制造业规模等因素对江苏制造业价值链攀升的影响。研究发现：制造业价值链、技术创新、生产性服务业三者之间存在长期均衡关系，且生产性服务业是制造业价值链的Granger原因，制造业价值链是技术创新的Granger原因，但技术创新不是制造业价值链的Granger原因；脉冲响应和方差分解表明，各因素对制造业价值链攀升的影响顺序依次是生产性服务业、技术创新、产业集群指数和制造业规模，它们对制造业价值链总方差的贡献分别为28.1%、20.5%、6.3%和2.6%，说明四者对制造业价值链攀升具有重大影响，但生产性服务业影响更大。据此，提出了加快发展生产性服务业、加大技术创新力度、加速产业集群升级、壮大企业规模等政策建议。
以嚮量自迴歸( VAR)模型為基礎，運用協整檢驗、格蘭傑因果檢驗、方差分解和脈遲響應分析等技術，綜閤攷察瞭技術創新、生產性服務業、產業集群、製造業規模等因素對江囌製造業價值鏈攀升的影響。研究髮現：製造業價值鏈、技術創新、生產性服務業三者之間存在長期均衡關繫，且生產性服務業是製造業價值鏈的Granger原因，製造業價值鏈是技術創新的Granger原因，但技術創新不是製造業價值鏈的Granger原因；脈遲響應和方差分解錶明，各因素對製造業價值鏈攀升的影響順序依次是生產性服務業、技術創新、產業集群指數和製造業規模，它們對製造業價值鏈總方差的貢獻分彆為28.1%、20.5%、6.3%和2.6%，說明四者對製造業價值鏈攀升具有重大影響，但生產性服務業影響更大。據此，提齣瞭加快髮展生產性服務業、加大技術創新力度、加速產業集群升級、壯大企業規模等政策建議。
이향량자회귀( VAR)모형위기출，운용협정검험、격란걸인과검험、방차분해화맥충향응분석등기술，종합고찰료기술창신、생산성복무업、산업집군、제조업규모등인소대강소제조업개치련반승적영향。연구발현：제조업개치련、기술창신、생산성복무업삼자지간존재장기균형관계，차생산성복무업시제조업개치련적Granger원인，제조업개치련시기술창신적Granger원인，단기술창신불시제조업개치련적Granger원인；맥충향응화방차분해표명，각인소대제조업개치련반승적영향순서의차시생산성복무업、기술창신、산업집군지수화제조업규모，타문대제조업개치련총방차적공헌분별위28.1%、20.5%、6.3%화2.6%，설명사자대제조업개치련반승구유중대영향，단생산성복무업영향경대。거차，제출료가쾌발전생산성복무업、가대기술창신력도、가속산업집군승급、장대기업규모등정책건의。
This article takes the vector auto-regressive ( VAR) model as a basis, and uses the cointegration test, granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis technology to inspect the influence of technology innovation, producer services industry, industry cluster and manufacturing industry scale factors on the value chain of Jiangsu manufacturing industry up-grade comprehensively. Research finds that value chain of manufacturing industry, technology innovation and producer services in-dustry have a long term equilibrium relationship, and producer services industry is the Granger reason of value chain of manufactur-ing industry, value chain of manufacturing industry is the Granger reason of technology innovation, but technological innovation is not the Granger reason of the value chain of manufacturing industry;Pulse and variance decomposition show that the order that each factor influences value chain of manufacturing industry is production services, technology innovation, industry cluster index and manufacturing industry scale, their contribution respective to the total variance of value chain of manufacturing industry are 28. 1%, 20. 5%, 6. 3% and 2. 6%, which explains that the four factors have important influence on value chain of manufacturing in-dustry upgrade, but the influence of producer services is more bigger. Accordingly, this article puts forward to some policy sugges-tions of speeding up the development of production services, increasing the technical innovation, accelerating industrial cluster up-grade and expanding scale of enterprise.
