中国农业资源与区划
中國農業資源與區劃
중국농업자원여구화
CHINA AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND REGIONAL PLANNING
2014年
3期
113-119
,共7页
城市化%城乡收入差距%农产品价格%VAR模型
城市化%城鄉收入差距%農產品價格%VAR模型
성시화%성향수입차거%농산품개격%VAR모형
urbanization%urban - rural inequality%agriculture products price%VAR model
该文使用Johansen协整检验和VAR模型考察城市化率与城乡收入差距是否影响我国农产品价格，以及影响作用的程度与机制。在控制了其他因素的影响下，证实了城市化率与城乡收入差距对国内农产品价格具有经济上的显著影响。其中，城市化率每增加1个单位，国内农产品价格下降约17．56个单位，而城乡收入差距每增加1个单位，农产品价格则下降0．7个单位；脉冲响应分析表明，城市化对农产品价格的作用更加明显，而城乡收入差距对农产品价格的影响相对较弱。另外，农产品价格的波动存在非对称性，向下冲击所导致的波动大于向上冲击所导致的波动，即农产品价格下跌的可能性大于农产品价格上涨。最后该文提出应逐步完善农产品价格的应急机制来应对农产品价格的波动，进一步加快我国城市化进程来抵制刘易斯拐点所带来的冲击作用，通过提高农民收入来逐步缩小我国城乡收入差距的政策建议。
該文使用Johansen協整檢驗和VAR模型攷察城市化率與城鄉收入差距是否影響我國農產品價格，以及影響作用的程度與機製。在控製瞭其他因素的影響下，證實瞭城市化率與城鄉收入差距對國內農產品價格具有經濟上的顯著影響。其中，城市化率每增加1箇單位，國內農產品價格下降約17．56箇單位，而城鄉收入差距每增加1箇單位，農產品價格則下降0．7箇單位；脈遲響應分析錶明，城市化對農產品價格的作用更加明顯，而城鄉收入差距對農產品價格的影響相對較弱。另外，農產品價格的波動存在非對稱性，嚮下遲擊所導緻的波動大于嚮上遲擊所導緻的波動，即農產品價格下跌的可能性大于農產品價格上漲。最後該文提齣應逐步完善農產品價格的應急機製來應對農產品價格的波動，進一步加快我國城市化進程來牴製劉易斯枴點所帶來的遲擊作用，通過提高農民收入來逐步縮小我國城鄉收入差距的政策建議。
해문사용Johansen협정검험화VAR모형고찰성시화솔여성향수입차거시부영향아국농산품개격，이급영향작용적정도여궤제。재공제료기타인소적영향하，증실료성시화솔여성향수입차거대국내농산품개격구유경제상적현저영향。기중，성시화솔매증가1개단위，국내농산품개격하강약17．56개단위，이성향수입차거매증가1개단위，농산품개격칙하강0．7개단위；맥충향응분석표명，성시화대농산품개격적작용경가명현，이성향수입차거대농산품개격적영향상대교약。령외，농산품개격적파동존재비대칭성，향하충격소도치적파동대우향상충격소도치적파동，즉농산품개격하질적가능성대우농산품개격상창。최후해문제출응축보완선농산품개격적응급궤제래응대농산품개격적파동，진일보가쾌아국성시화진정래저제류역사괴점소대래적충격작용，통과제고농민수입래축보축소아국성향수입차거적정책건의。
This article used the Johansen cointegration test and VAR model to study the effects of urbanization and income gap between urban and rural areas on the price of agricultural products in China, as well as the extent and mechanism of the effect. On the condition of controlling other factors, this paper confirmed the urbanization and ur-ban-rural income gap had significant impacts on the domestic prices of agricultural products. The urbanization rate increased 1 unit, the domestic agricultural price declined by about 17. 56 units, while the income gap between urban and rural areas increased 1 unit, the agricultural prices decreased by 0. 7 units. Pulse response analysis showed that urbanization had greater effects on the prices of agricultural products. In addition, the fluctuations of the agricultural price showed a asymmetry, which caused by the downward impact was greater than that by upward impact, that is, the possibility of the price declining was greater than the price rising . Finally, this paper put for-ward some policy recommendations including gradually improving emergency mechanisms to deal with price fluctua-tion, further speeding up the process of urbanization in China to resist the impact of the lewisian role, and increas-ing farmers' incomes to narrow the urban-rural income gap.
