CAJ | 학술논문

随着新疆枣树种植规模的不断扩大，新疆的红枣产量也在迅速增长。该文结合枣树生长周期的特点，运用多项式分布滞后模型( PDL)来分析新疆枣树种植规模的增长对红枣产量增量的滞后影响程度。根据新疆红枣产业的发展现状，在种植规模不变的假设条件下，利用PDL模型来分析新增种植的枣树对红枣产量的贡献程度。通过分析，该文认为枣树的种植规模对产量存在着滞后期为7的影响长度。其影响程度随着时间的增长而增强，直到产量在盛果期稳定下来。同时，利用种植规模变动对产量的滞后影响程度可以预测出2012~2017年的红枣产量，从而得出新疆红枣产业面临供给单方面暴增的风险这一结论。为了新疆红枣产业的健康发展，需要及时对红枣产业规模和结构进行调控。
수착신강조수충식규모적불단확대，신강적홍조산량야재신속증장。해문결합조수생장주기적특점，운용다항식분포체후모형( PDL)래분석신강조수충식규모적증장대홍조산량증량적체후영향정도。근거신강홍조산업적발전현상，재충식규모불변적가설조건하，이용PDL모형래분석신증충식적조수대홍조산량적공헌정도。통과분석，해문인위조수적충식규모대산량존재착체후기위7적영향장도。기영향정도수착시간적증장이증강，직도산량재성과기은정하래。동시，이용충식규모변동대산량적체후영향정도가이예측출2012~2017년적홍조산량，종이득출신강홍조산업면림공급단방면폭증적풍험저일결론。위료신강홍조산업적건강발전，수요급시대홍조산업규모화결구진행조공。
Withtheextendofplantingscaleofjujubetrees,thesupplyofXinjiangjujubeincreasesquicklyinre-cent years. Based on the feature of jujube 's growing cycle, this article uses polynomial distribution lag model ( PDL) to analyze the lag influence of the planting scale on the yield of jujube. So, under the developing status quo of Xinjiang jujube industry, based on the assumption that the planting scale of jujube trees stop growing, the PDL model was used to analyze the contributions of newly increased trees to jujube yields. The results showed that the lag influence period was seven years. Along with the time growth, the influence become more and more stron-ger until the full bearing period. Based on the lag influence on the growth of jujube supply, it can forecast the ju-jube supply of 2012~2017. The supply of Xinjiang jujube will increase largerly. For the healthy development of the Xinjiang jujube industry, it needed to control and adjust the jujube industry.