CAJ | 학술논문

该文依据1998~2012年山东省粮食种植成本资料，运用时间序列Holt-Winters无季节型模型及趋势---ARMA模型构成的计量经济组合模型，对2013~2017年山东省粮食种植单位面积实际生产成本进行预测。研究表明，山东省粮食种植每公顷实际生产成本将持续加速增长，玉米将以年均增长9．48%的速度由2013年的5913．30元提高到2017年的8495．25元；小麦将以年均增长8．79%的速度由2013年的7355．55元提高到2017年的10305元。成本高、加速增长将成为2013~2017年山东省粮食种植单位面积实际生产成本变动的主要特征，成本的快速增长已成为制约粮农种植收益增长的重要因素。为此，提出应对粮食种植成本过快上涨，提高农户种粮收益的对策建议：(1)积极推广集约利用主要生产资料的先进技术，鼓励节约用肥和提高化肥效能、提高粮食单产、节约机械作业费及节水的技术进步；(2)积极培育农村新型经营主体；(3)大力推进粮食规模化、专业化生产；(4)加快转变农业发展方式。
해문의거1998~2012년산동성양식충식성본자료，운용시간서렬Holt-Winters무계절형모형급추세---ARMA모형구성적계량경제조합모형，대2013~2017년산동성양식충식단위면적실제생산성본진행예측。연구표명，산동성양식충식매공경실제생산성본장지속가속증장，옥미장이년균증장9．48%적속도유2013년적5913．30원제고도2017년적8495．25원；소맥장이년균증장8．79%적속도유2013년적7355．55원제고도2017년적10305원。성본고、가속증장장성위2013~2017년산동성양식충식단위면적실제생산성본변동적주요특정，성본적쾌속증장이성위제약량농충식수익증장적중요인소。위차，제출응대양식충식성본과쾌상창，제고농호충량수익적대책건의：(1)적겁추엄집약이용주요생산자료적선진기술，고려절약용비화제고화비효능、제고양식단산、절약궤계작업비급절수적기술진보；(2)적겁배육농촌신형경영주체；(3)대력추진양식규모화、전업화생산；(4)가쾌전변농업발전방식。
UsingeconometricsmodelcombinedtimeseriesHolt-Wintersnoseasonmodelwithtrend-ARMA method, this paper forecasted the actual production cost in grain plant unit area from 2013 to 2017 according the cost data of Shandong province from 1998 to 2012 . The results showed that the actual cost per hectare would in-crease continuouly. Corn's per hectare cost would increase from 5 913. 30 to 8 495. 25 Yuan with an average an-nual growth speed of 9. 48%;wheat's per hectare cost would increase from 7 355. 55 to 10 305 Yuan with aver-age annual growth speed of 8 . 79%. High cost and accelerated increase would be the major characters of grain plant unit area actual production cost in Shandong province from 2013 to 2017 , which become an important factor restricting peasants' income increase. Then it put forward some suggestions on cutting cost and raising income: (1) to actively popularize advanced techniques to save fertilizer application, enhance chemical fertilizer efficiency, ele-vate grain yield per unit area, save mechanical work cost and water resource. ( 2 ) to actively cultivate modern management body. ( 3 ) to energetically carry grain enlargement and specialization production forward. ( 4 ) to speed up agriculture development mode transfer.