中国电机工程学报
中國電機工程學報
중국전궤공정학보
ZHONGGUO DIANJI GONGCHENG XUEBAO
2014年
7期
1124-1131
,共8页
大停电%网架重构%线路投运%运行风险评估%马尔可夫过程%可信性理论%模糊模拟
大停電%網架重構%線路投運%運行風險評估%馬爾可伕過程%可信性理論%模糊模擬
대정전%망가중구%선로투운%운행풍험평고%마이가부과정%가신성이론%모호모의
massive outage%network reconfiguration%transmission line restoration%operational risk assessment%Markov process%credibility theory%fuzzy simulation
大停电后的网架重构恢复过程涉及到大量空载线路的投运。针对当前网架重构方案运行风险评估对线路投运风险的建模与评价所存在的局限，以两状态马尔可夫过程模型为基础，以空载线路可能的合闸失败和合闸成功后的可能停运作为线路投运过程的主要不确定因素，建立采用模糊修复率和统计故障率的线路投运模型。进一步，通过基于可信性理论的模糊模拟求解得到线路投运模糊状态概率的期望值。最后，采用该模型对已有的重构方案线路投运风险评估框架进行拓展。针对IEEE 30节点系统已有重构方案的评估结果表明：利用该模型可得到与方案恢复过程相对应的线路投运风险的变化轨迹，可为调度人员选择恢复方案提供更加全面的决策辅助信息。
大停電後的網架重構恢複過程涉及到大量空載線路的投運。針對噹前網架重構方案運行風險評估對線路投運風險的建模與評價所存在的跼限，以兩狀態馬爾可伕過程模型為基礎，以空載線路可能的閤閘失敗和閤閘成功後的可能停運作為線路投運過程的主要不確定因素，建立採用模糊脩複率和統計故障率的線路投運模型。進一步，通過基于可信性理論的模糊模擬求解得到線路投運模糊狀態概率的期望值。最後，採用該模型對已有的重構方案線路投運風險評估框架進行拓展。針對IEEE 30節點繫統已有重構方案的評估結果錶明：利用該模型可得到與方案恢複過程相對應的線路投運風險的變化軌跡，可為調度人員選擇恢複方案提供更加全麵的決策輔助信息。
대정전후적망가중구회복과정섭급도대량공재선로적투운。침대당전망가중구방안운행풍험평고대선로투운풍험적건모여평개소존재적국한，이량상태마이가부과정모형위기출，이공재선로가능적합갑실패화합갑성공후적가능정운작위선로투운과정적주요불학정인소，건립채용모호수복솔화통계고장솔적선로투운모형。진일보，통과기우가신성이론적모호모의구해득도선로투운모호상태개솔적기망치。최후，채용해모형대이유적중구방안선로투운풍험평고광가진행탁전。침대IEEE 30절점계통이유중구방안적평고결과표명：이용해모형가득도여방안회복과정상대응적선로투운풍험적변화궤적，가위조도인원선택회복방안제공경가전면적결책보조신식。
Network reconfiguration following the massive outage involves a large number of transmission lines that need to be switched on. Due to the drawback existing in modeling and evaluation of risk regarding restoring transmission lines, a model with the fuzzy repair rate and statistic failure rate for transmission lines’ restoration was proposed in this paper. Based on two-state Markov process, the model took into account main uncertain factors influencing the state of transmission lines, which included possible failure in switching on lines and following lines’ restoration. Further, the expected value of fuzzy state possibility for restoring transmission lines was solved by means of fuzzy simulation based on credibility theory. Finally, the model proposed was employed in facilitating the existing framework of operational risk assessment for restoring transmission lines according to a certain reconfiguration scheme. The application on schemes of reconstructing the IEEE 30-bus system indicates that the model could help dispatchers track the risk variation corresponding to each operation step during restoring transmission lines, which provides more comprehensive auxiliary information for dispatchers choosing restoration schemes.
