CAJ | 학술논문

量化业扩报装业务对电力市场的影响，是从用电根源处把控未来电力变动的关键。在参照生长曲线特性的基础上，结合客户业扩报装后用电的特点，对典型客户业扩用电生长曲线建立模型并进行算法研究，利用主元分析法汲取得到行业业扩用电生长曲线，以瞬时生长率为基值，拐点识别为依据，实现曲线的分阶段解读，完成行业业扩用电的特质剖析。结果证明生长曲线很好地反映了钢铁行业业扩用电发展趋势，对科学地预测有切实的指导意义。
양화업확보장업무대전력시장적영향，시종용전근원처파공미래전력변동적관건。재삼조생장곡선특성적기출상，결합객호업확보장후용전적특점，대전형객호업확용전생장곡선건립모형병진행산법연구，이용주원분석법급취득도행업업확용전생장곡선，이순시생장솔위기치，괴점식별위의거，실현곡선적분계단해독，완성행업업확용전적특질부석。결과증명생장곡선흔호지반영료강철행업업확용전발전추세，대과학지예측유절실적지도의의。
Quantifying business expanding which impacts the electricity market, is the key of controlling the electricity changes in future. Based on growth curve characters, combined with the electricity characteristics of typical industry customers af-ter business expanding, expanding power industry growth curves of typical customers were modeled and computed. A model which was extracted by principal component analysis was completed. The arti-cle used the instantaneous growth rate and the inflection points to do a phased curve modeling, and completed expansion of the indus-try sector analysis of the characteristics of electricity. Example was given to illustrate these models could reflect the developing trend of a typical steel industry very well, and this conclusion will likely to be a significant guidance for predicting scientifically and effec-tively.