CAJ | 학술논문

　　目前，农村剩余劳动力的问题日益凸显，合理、准确预测未来几年的种植业劳动力需求是估算剩余劳动力的基础，且对发展农业生产和解决“三农”问题意义重大。为此，首先建立了劳动力需求关系模型，运用专家预测法对大庆市未来10年的农作物总播种面积进行预测，用S曲线的趋势外推预测方法对机械化程度进行预测，并采用发放调查问卷的方式估算了劳均可负担耕地面积。最后，得到未来10年大庆市种植业劳动力的需求量，以期对大庆市的农业经济发展起到参考作用。
　　목전，농촌잉여노동력적문제일익철현，합리、준학예측미래궤년적충식업노동력수구시고산잉여노동력적기출，차대발전농업생산화해결“삼농”문제의의중대。위차，수선건립료노동력수구관계모형，운용전가예측법대대경시미래10년적농작물총파충면적진행예측，용S곡선적추세외추예측방법대궤계화정도진행예측，병채용발방조사문권적방식고산료로균가부담경지면적。최후，득도미래10년대경시충식업노동력적수구량，이기대대경시적농업경제발전기도삼고작용。
With the rapid development of Agricultural , the problem of rural surplus labor emerged as a major issue .Fore-casting the demand of crop farming in following several years is the foundation of estimating the rural surplus labor .It is of great significance to develop agricultural production and resolve "San Nong"problems.It firstly gives the mathematical model of the demand of labour.Forcasting the cultivated area of the crops of Daqing in the fixed assets with application expert of assessment method .This paper adopts the prediction models to forecast the change trend of the agricultural com -prehensive mechanization degree .The burden arable land of per labor were surveyed by means of questionnaire .Finally the paper got the labor demand of Crop farming in Daqing in the following several years in order to provide the reference in the development of Agricultural in Daqing .