CAJ | 학술논문

基于Copula函数分析了飞来峡水库坝址洪水洪峰和最大7 d洪量联合概率分布特征，获得如下结论：拟合优度检验指标表明4种Archimedean Copula 函数中Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数拟合两者的联合概率分布效果较好；洪峰与最大7d洪量的联合重现期小于相应边缘分布的重现期，而同现重现期则大于相应边缘分布的重现期，以单变量计算推算的设计值实际上达不到所要求的设计标准；基于两变量联合分布得到的洪水频率分析计算结果更合理。
기우Copula함수분석료비래협수고패지홍수홍봉화최대7 d홍량연합개솔분포특정，획득여하결론：의합우도검험지표표명4충Archimedean Copula 함수중Gumbel-Hougaard Copula함수의합량자적연합개솔분포효과교호；홍봉여최대7d홍량적연합중현기소우상응변연분포적중현기，이동현중현기칙대우상응변연분포적중현기，이단변량계산추산적설계치실제상체불도소요구적설계표준；기우량변량연합분포득도적홍수빈솔분석계산결과경합리。
The characteristics of joint probability distribution of peak and the annual maximum seven day volume ( AMSV) in the Feilaixia Reservoir are analyzed based on Copula function .Some conclusions were obtained as following: ( 1 ) Gumbel-Hougaard Copula is the optimal copula selected in four kind of Archimedean Copula by the results of goodness -of-fit test; (2) The joint re-turn periods are shorter than margin ones which are less than the over return period between Characteristics of peak and AMSV for the flood, it's under the design criteria to the result which is based on the single frequency .(3)Case study shows that the bivariate joint distribution is more reasonable to flood frequency analysis .