CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过分析未来国内钢铁需求和出口趋势，分析了我国钢铁产业的合理产能规模。8个后工业化国家1980年以来的粗钢总消费和人均消费一直处于稳定状态，表明一国粗钢需求达到顶点后将经历缓慢下降然后长期处于稳定状态，本文将其称为后平台期。我国人均粗钢需求已进入峰值区，人均粗钢消费峰值在530～540kg 之间，消费总量在7．5亿～7．6亿 t 左右，后平台期平均人均粗钢消费量在500kg/人左右，粗钢总消费量将维持在7．2亿～7．3亿 t左右的水平；未来我国钢铁出口有进一步扩大趋势，综合国内需求和出口需求两方面的分析，本文认为中国钢铁合理产能规模在9亿～9．5亿t左右，在不增加产能的前提下，中国还要淘汰1亿～1．5亿t的过剩产能。
본문통과분석미래국내강철수구화출구추세，분석료아국강철산업적합리산능규모。8개후공업화국가1980년이래적조강총소비화인균소비일직처우은정상태，표명일국조강수구체도정점후장경력완만하강연후장기처우은정상태，본문장기칭위후평태기。아국인균조강수구이진입봉치구，인균조강소비봉치재530～540kg 지간，소비총량재7．5억～7．6억 t 좌우，후평태기평균인균조강소비량재500kg/인좌우，조강총소비량장유지재7．2억～7．3억 t좌우적수평；미래아국강철출구유진일보확대추세，종합국내수구화출구수구량방면적분석，본문인위중국강철합리산능규모재9억～9．5억t좌우，재불증가산능적전제하，중국환요도태1억～1．5억t적과잉산능。
By analyzing the domestic steel demand and export trends ,we tried to calculate the reasonable scale of steel production capacity of China .Eight industrialized countries have kept stable on the total and percapita consumption of crude steel since 1980 ,indicating that a country’s crude steel demand will experience a long-term stable term after a slow decline ,referred to herein as the after-plateau .China’s crude steel demand has entered the peak area which is between 530~540 kg ,and the total consumption is about 7 .5million~7 .6million tons .And in the after-plateau ,the average percapita consumption of crude steel is of 500 kg per person around ,as well as total crude steel consumption of 7 .2million~7 .3million tons .With the expanding of the steel products export ,the paper argues that China’s reasonable steel production capacity is about 9million~9 .5million tons .Therefore ,there’s a over-capacity of 1million~1 .5million tons to be cut under the premise of zero-increase .