CAJ | 학술논문

本文从能源消费规模，能源消费结构，能源消费终端和能源消费效率等四个方面，综合分析了我国城市化对能源消费的影响，并对未来我国城市化进程中能源消费趋势进行了预测。分析得出：①我国城市化过程中能源消费总量及人均消费量快速增长，全球占比逐渐增大；②未来一段时间煤炭依然是我国能源消费的主体，但占比将会逐渐下降；③我国城市化过程中能源消费终端主要以工业为主；④我国能源效率在城市化过程中不断提升。预测未来，随着我国城市化进程的推进，我国能源结构将有所改善，消费效率将会提高，第三产业能耗将会降低，同时我国能源安全问题将会日益凸显。
본문종능원소비규모，능원소비결구，능원소비종단화능원소비효솔등사개방면，종합분석료아국성시화대능원소비적영향，병대미래아국성시화진정중능원소비추세진행료예측。분석득출：①아국성시화과정중능원소비총량급인균소비량쾌속증장，전구점비축점증대；②미래일단시간매탄의연시아국능원소비적주체，단점비장회축점하강；③아국성시화과정중능원소비종단주요이공업위주；④아국능원효솔재성시화과정중불단제승。예측미래，수착아국성시화진정적추진，아국능원결구장유소개선，소비효솔장회제고，제삼산업능모장회강저，동시아국능원안전문제장회일익철현。
Based on four aspects ,i .e .the energy consumption scale ,energy consumption structure , energy consumption terminal and energy consumption efficiency ,this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the influence of urbanization in our country on energy consumption and a prediction about the future trend of energy consumption in the process of urbanization in our country .The conclusions are :① the total energy and per capita consumption in the process of urbanization in our country grows rapidly ,and its proportion in global demand is gradually increasing ;② during a period of time in the future ,coal will still be the main body of energy consumption in our country ,but the percentage will gradually decrease ;③ in the process of urbanization in China ,industry took the principle part of the energy consumption terminal ;④ the energy efficiency in the process of urbanization in our country is increasing .As to the future ,with energy efficiency increasing and energy consumption for the third industry decreasing ,and at the same time ,the problem of energy security in our country will become increasingly prominent .