计算机技术与发展
計算機技術與髮展
계산궤기술여발전
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY AND DEVELOPMENT
2014年
6期
236-238,242
,共4页
灰色%Elman神经网络%瓦斯涌出量%融合%预测
灰色%Elman神經網絡%瓦斯湧齣量%融閤%預測
회색%Elman신경망락%와사용출량%융합%예측
gray%Elman neural network%gas emission%fusion%prediction
为了准确预测矿井瓦斯涌出量，将灰色理论与Elman神经网络模型结合，建立矿井瓦斯涌出量预测模型。灰色系统能较好地预测变化的趋势，而Elman神经网络具有动态特性好、逼近速度快、精度高等特点。对于煤矿生产中瓦斯涌出量的预测，两者结合能够发挥各自的优势，以某煤矿矿井为例，影响瓦斯涌出量的因素为预测因子建立灰色理论与Elman神经网络融合的预测模型。结果表明，灰色Elman神经网络模型优于传统灰色预测模型，提高了预测精度，达到了很好的预测效果。
為瞭準確預測礦井瓦斯湧齣量，將灰色理論與Elman神經網絡模型結閤，建立礦井瓦斯湧齣量預測模型。灰色繫統能較好地預測變化的趨勢，而Elman神經網絡具有動態特性好、逼近速度快、精度高等特點。對于煤礦生產中瓦斯湧齣量的預測，兩者結閤能夠髮揮各自的優勢，以某煤礦礦井為例，影響瓦斯湧齣量的因素為預測因子建立灰色理論與Elman神經網絡融閤的預測模型。結果錶明，灰色Elman神經網絡模型優于傳統灰色預測模型，提高瞭預測精度，達到瞭很好的預測效果。
위료준학예측광정와사용출량，장회색이론여Elman신경망락모형결합，건립광정와사용출량예측모형。회색계통능교호지예측변화적추세，이Elman신경망락구유동태특성호、핍근속도쾌、정도고등특점。대우매광생산중와사용출량적예측，량자결합능구발휘각자적우세，이모매광광정위례，영향와사용출량적인소위예측인자건립회색이론여Elman신경망락융합적예측모형。결과표명，회색Elman신경망락모형우우전통회색예측모형，제고료예측정도，체도료흔호적예측효과。
In order to accurately predict the amount of mine gas emission,the gray theory and Elman neural network model are combined to establish prediction model of mine gas emission. The gray system can predict the trend better,and the Elman neural network has good dynamic performance,quick convergence,high accuracy. For the prediction of gas emission in coal production,combination of the two can play their respective advantages,take a coal mine as an example,influence factors of gas emission as prediction factor to establish forecasting model of gray theory and Elman neural network fusion. The results show that,the gray Elman neural network model is better than the conventional gray forecasting model,improving the prediction accuracy,the prediction effect is very good.
