经济问题
經濟問題
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ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
2014年
6期
46-52
,共7页
城乡居民%通货膨胀承受力%宏观压力测试模型%情景分析法
城鄉居民%通貨膨脹承受力%宏觀壓力測試模型%情景分析法
성향거민%통화팽창승수력%굉관압력측시모형%정경분석법
urban and rural residents%inflation affordability%macro stress -testing model%scenario analysis method
运用居民通货膨胀承受力测度方法，同时借鉴商业银行进行压力测试的思想与方法，对城镇居民和农村居民的通货膨胀承受力进行了测度与比较。通过构建城乡居民通货膨胀承受力压力测试模型，比较分析了决定城乡居民通货膨胀承受力的宏观经济因子，即城镇为政府财政支出和平均受教育年限，农村为固定资产投资增长率和平均受教育年限，依据情景分析法，分别对我国城乡居民通货膨胀承受力进行了压力测试分析，并结合压力测试结果和我国当前的实际经济状况，提出了相应的政策建议。
運用居民通貨膨脹承受力測度方法，同時藉鑒商業銀行進行壓力測試的思想與方法，對城鎮居民和農村居民的通貨膨脹承受力進行瞭測度與比較。通過構建城鄉居民通貨膨脹承受力壓力測試模型，比較分析瞭決定城鄉居民通貨膨脹承受力的宏觀經濟因子，即城鎮為政府財政支齣和平均受教育年限，農村為固定資產投資增長率和平均受教育年限，依據情景分析法，分彆對我國城鄉居民通貨膨脹承受力進行瞭壓力測試分析，併結閤壓力測試結果和我國噹前的實際經濟狀況，提齣瞭相應的政策建議。
운용거민통화팽창승수력측도방법，동시차감상업은행진행압력측시적사상여방법，대성진거민화농촌거민적통화팽창승수력진행료측도여비교。통과구건성향거민통화팽창승수력압력측시모형，비교분석료결정성향거민통화팽창승수력적굉관경제인자，즉성진위정부재정지출화평균수교육년한，농촌위고정자산투자증장솔화평균수교육년한，의거정경분석법，분별대아국성향거민통화팽창승수력진행료압력측시분석，병결합압력측시결과화아국당전적실제경제상황，제출료상응적정책건의。
Combined with the basic idea and analysis method of macro stress -testing usedby the commercial bank, this paper adopted the inflation affordability measure method of residents in china , to measure and compare inflation affordability of urban and rural residents .Through the construction of measuring model of the inflation af-fordability of urban and rural residents in china , the paper compare and analyze macro economic factors of determi-ning inflation affordability of urban and rural residents , that the town residents is fiscal expenditure of government and average years of schooling , and the rural residents is fixed assets investment growth rate and average years of schooling .According to the scenario analysis method , macrostress -testing is respectively employed on assessing inflation affordability of urban and rural residents .Finally, combined with results of stress -testing and China ’ s current macroeconomic situation , the paper presents the relevant policy recommendations .
