工程地质学报
工程地質學報
공정지질학보
2014年
3期
372-378
,共7页
郑亚楠%侯晓坤%李萍%李同录
鄭亞楠%侯曉坤%李萍%李同錄
정아남%후효곤%리평%리동록
黄土边坡%可靠度%失效概率%Monte-Carlo法%极限状态坡
黃土邊坡%可靠度%失效概率%Monte-Carlo法%極限狀態坡
황토변파%가고도%실효개솔%Monte-Carlo법%겁한상태파
Loess slope%Reliability%Failure probability%Monte-Carlo method%Limit-state slope
实测了研究区8个自然极限状态坡建立地质模型。从地质勘探报告中收集了592组土样的土工试验数据，分地层年代统计了其物理力学指标。选取临县-离石公路沿线9个工点的实验数据，统计了该区c、φ值的变异系数，并对其变异性进行了分析。将c、φ值变异系数进行组合，进行了Monte-Carlo模拟。模拟结果显示，所测8个极限状态坡稳定系数为0.96～1.14，不同变异系数组合下，失效概率多为33.0％～61.8％。进一步对坡高为50.5m和81.8m的自然极限状态坡进行分析，分析结果显示：对于坡高为50.5m的边坡，在变异系数取当地平均水平（COVc＝0.66，COVφ＝0.28）时，若设计要求失效概率不超过10％，则坡率不应高于1！1.81；对于坡高为81.8m的边坡，在该变异系数组合下，若设计要求失效概率不超过10％，则坡率不应高于1！1.94。
實測瞭研究區8箇自然極限狀態坡建立地質模型。從地質勘探報告中收集瞭592組土樣的土工試驗數據，分地層年代統計瞭其物理力學指標。選取臨縣-離石公路沿線9箇工點的實驗數據，統計瞭該區c、φ值的變異繫數，併對其變異性進行瞭分析。將c、φ值變異繫數進行組閤，進行瞭Monte-Carlo模擬。模擬結果顯示，所測8箇極限狀態坡穩定繫數為0.96～1.14，不同變異繫數組閤下，失效概率多為33.0％～61.8％。進一步對坡高為50.5m和81.8m的自然極限狀態坡進行分析，分析結果顯示：對于坡高為50.5m的邊坡，在變異繫數取噹地平均水平（COVc＝0.66，COVφ＝0.28）時，若設計要求失效概率不超過10％，則坡率不應高于1！1.81；對于坡高為81.8m的邊坡，在該變異繫數組閤下，若設計要求失效概率不超過10％，則坡率不應高于1！1.94。
실측료연구구8개자연겁한상태파건입지질모형。종지질감탐보고중수집료592조토양적토공시험수거，분지층년대통계료기물리역학지표。선취림현-리석공로연선9개공점적실험수거，통계료해구c、φ치적변이계수，병대기변이성진행료분석。장c、φ치변이계수진행조합，진행료Monte-Carlo모의。모의결과현시，소측8개겁한상태파은정계수위0.96～1.14，불동변이계수조합하，실효개솔다위33.0％～61.8％。진일보대파고위50.5m화81.8m적자연겁한상태파진행분석，분석결과현시：대우파고위50.5m적변파，재변이계수취당지평균수평（COVc＝0.66，COVφ＝0.28）시，약설계요구실효개솔불초과10％，칙파솔불응고우1！1.81；대우파고위81.8m적변파，재해변이계수조합하，약설계요구실효개솔불초과10％，칙파솔불응고우1！1.94。
Eight natural limit-state loess high slopes are measured in Xixian-Lishi area of Shanxi province.Then the geologic models are built.Meanwhile,soil test data of 592 groups soil samples from investigation reports of the engineering geology are collected,counting the physical and mechanical parameters of loess in study area according to chronologic age.Soil test data of 9 sites along Linxian-Lishi road are selected.The parameters c,φare statistically analyzed for the variability of loess simultaneously.The coefficient of variation for the value of strength parameters c,φare combined,carrying out the simulation of reliability by Monte-Carlo method.The results show that the stability coefficients of these slopes are between 0.96 and 1.14.The probability of failure are between 33.0%and 6 1.8%.The natural analogy method is used to analyze two natural limit-state loess high slopes with the heights of 50.5m and 80.8m,respectively.The analysis shows that for the slope of 50.5m high if the design requires the probability of failure no more than 10%,the slope ratio should not be more than 1 ∶1.81 under the average combination of variation coefficient(COVc=0.66,COVφ=0.28).For the slope of 81.8m height if the design requires the probability of failure no more than 10%,the slope ratio should not be more than 1 ∶1.94 under the same combination of variation coefficient.
