工程地质学报
工程地質學報
공정지질학보
2014年
3期
355-360
,共6页
泥石流%蒋家沟%平均流速%预测模型%敏感因子
泥石流%蔣傢溝%平均流速%預測模型%敏感因子
니석류%장가구%평균류속%예측모형%민감인자
Debris flow%Jiangjia gully%Average velocity%Prediction model%Sensitive factors
为了探求泥石流平均流速敏感因子及影响因素耦合关系，本文采用BP神经网络和支持向量机模型对蒋家沟泥石流数据进行预测，对两种泥石流平均流速预测模型的学习与泛化能力进行比较，并对平均流速各影响因素的敏感程度进行分析，建立了泥石流平均流速敏感因子预测模型。结果表明：支持向量机的泛化能力优于BP网络，更适合样本数量较少的泥石流动态预测。沟道比降和不稳定层厚度是泥石流平均流速的主要影响因子，各因子之间存在复杂的耦合关系。基于不稳定层厚度和泥面比降的泥石流平均流速预测模型精度较高，能够定量描述泥石流动态与影响因子间的响应关系。研究成果可为泥石流防治提供依据。
為瞭探求泥石流平均流速敏感因子及影響因素耦閤關繫，本文採用BP神經網絡和支持嚮量機模型對蔣傢溝泥石流數據進行預測，對兩種泥石流平均流速預測模型的學習與汎化能力進行比較，併對平均流速各影響因素的敏感程度進行分析，建立瞭泥石流平均流速敏感因子預測模型。結果錶明：支持嚮量機的汎化能力優于BP網絡，更適閤樣本數量較少的泥石流動態預測。溝道比降和不穩定層厚度是泥石流平均流速的主要影響因子，各因子之間存在複雜的耦閤關繫。基于不穩定層厚度和泥麵比降的泥石流平均流速預測模型精度較高，能夠定量描述泥石流動態與影響因子間的響應關繫。研究成果可為泥石流防治提供依據。
위료탐구니석류평균류속민감인자급영향인소우합관계，본문채용BP신경망락화지지향량궤모형대장가구니석류수거진행예측，대량충니석류평균류속예측모형적학습여범화능력진행비교，병대평균류속각영향인소적민감정도진행분석，건립료니석류평균류속민감인자예측모형。결과표명：지지향량궤적범화능력우우BP망락，경괄합양본수량교소적니석류동태예측。구도비강화불은정층후도시니석류평균류속적주요영향인자，각인자지간존재복잡적우합관계。기우불은정층후도화니면비강적니석류평균류속예측모형정도교고，능구정량묘술니석류동태여영향인자간적향응관계。연구성과가위니석류방치제공의거。
This paper investigates the sensitive factors of the average speed of debris flows and coupling relationship of the influence factors with the data of debris flows in Jiangjia gully.The BPANN and SVM are proposed for building predictive model of average velocity of debris flows.Prediction accuracy and scope of application of the two models are compared.Analysis is done on various factors for their sensitivities to average speed of debris flows with the default factor method.A prediction model for debris flows is established and verified. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the SVM model is better than that of the BPANN model in the validation phase.The extrapolating ability and predicting capability have been validated by using the support vector machine prediction model,and the SVM model is more suitable for its prediction of debris flow.Channel slope and the thickness of the unstable layer are the main sensitive factors affecting average velocity of debris flows.The interaction amongst various factors formed coupling relationship under the complicated condition.The relationship model of average speed of debris flows established base upon channel slope,and the thickness of the unstable layer can well express quantitatively the response relationship between debris flows dynamic and various factors with sufficient high accuracy.It is an accurate scientific basis for prevention of debris flow.
