财经论丛
財經論叢
재경론총
COLLECTED ESSAYS ON FINANCE AND ECONOMICS
2014年
7期
38-44
,共7页
贷款损失准备%相机决策型计提%非相机决策型计提%顺周期性%盈余管理
貸款損失準備%相機決策型計提%非相機決策型計提%順週期性%盈餘管理
대관손실준비%상궤결책형계제%비상궤결책형계제%순주기성%영여관리
loan loss provision%discretionary component%nondiscretionary component%pro-cyclicality%earnings management
按照管理动机将贷款损失准备计提行为区分为非相机决策与相机决策两种类型，选取2003-2012年中国上市银行数据，采用动态面板数据模型实证分析贷款损失准备计提对银行信贷的影响。结果表明，商业银行贷款损失准备计提存在显著的顺周期性特征，其中非相机决策型计提的影响处于主导地位，收入平滑动机与信号显示动机对商业银行顺周期性的缓释作用有限，应基于预期损失模型建立逆周期性贷款损失准备制度。
按照管理動機將貸款損失準備計提行為區分為非相機決策與相機決策兩種類型，選取2003-2012年中國上市銀行數據，採用動態麵闆數據模型實證分析貸款損失準備計提對銀行信貸的影響。結果錶明，商業銀行貸款損失準備計提存在顯著的順週期性特徵，其中非相機決策型計提的影響處于主導地位，收入平滑動機與信號顯示動機對商業銀行順週期性的緩釋作用有限，應基于預期損失模型建立逆週期性貸款損失準備製度。
안조관리동궤장대관손실준비계제행위구분위비상궤결책여상궤결책량충류형，선취2003-2012년중국상시은행수거，채용동태면판수거모형실증분석대관손실준비계제대은행신대적영향。결과표명，상업은행대관손실준비계제존재현저적순주기성특정，기중비상궤결책형계제적영향처우주도지위，수입평활동궤여신호현시동궤대상업은행순주기성적완석작용유한，응기우예기손실모형건립역주기성대관손실준비제도。
In this paper , loan loss provisions are divided into two types according to different management motivations :the discretionary component and nondiscretionary component .Based on data of China's listed banks in 2003-2012, we find a significant pro-cyclical behavior in the commercial bank loan provisions , as the nondiscretionary component is in a dominant position while the mitigation effect of income smoothing motivation and signal motivation on commercial banks 'pro-cyclical is limited.So a counter-cyclical mechanism of loan loss provisions should be established on the basis of the expected loss model .
