CAJ | 학술논문

从化解我国地方政府融资平台风险出发，本文运用改进的KMV模型研究了地方政债券发行和违约率之间的关系，运用2010-2012年的数据对深圳地方政府债券信用风险进行模拟测度，得出了深圳政府债券规模发行的合理区间。并从完善商业资信评级制度、发展债券信息收集和处理机构以及创新担保信用等级三个方面提出了加强我国地方政府债券信用风险管理的政策建议。
종화해아국지방정부융자평태풍험출발，본문운용개진적KMV모형연구료지방정채권발행화위약솔지간적관계，운용2010-2012년적수거대심수지방정부채권신용풍험진행모의측도，득출료심수정부채권규모발행적합리구간。병종완선상업자신평급제도、발전채권신식수집화처리궤구이급창신담보신용등급삼개방면제출료가강아국지방정부채권신용풍험관리적정책건의。
To resolve the risks of local government financing platform , this paper uses an improved KMV model to study the relationship between bond issuance of local governments and default rate .With data of 2010-2012 the paper makes a sim-ulated measure on the credit risk of bonds of Shenzhen local government , and identifies the reasonable size and interval of its bond issuance .The paper argues that improving the business credit rating system , developing bond information gathering and processing agencies , and innovating credit rating of guarantee are important measures to improve credit risk management of lo -cal government bonds in China .