CAJ | 학술논문

许多强震震例总结表明，在大地震前往往出现多种先兆性地震活动异常，可以作为强震危险区预测的重要依据[1，2]。回顾芦山地震前存在的地震活动图像异常有：川滇2008年开始新一轮大震活跃幕；沿E103°线分布的川滇东缘带是近期大地震的主体活动带；历史上川北M≥6级地震的原地复发，已出现4对，1327年天全地震离逝时间已680余年；1500~2007年中国南北地震带东缘带（银川-通海）M≥7.7级地震空段内（康定-武都），在2008年发生了汶川8级地震，北东向单侧破裂约300 km，但南段（映秀-天全）并未破裂，原缺震“空段”尚余一半；川滇几次中强以上地震后芦山-大邑均发生响应性诱发地震；中等地震月频次异常出现在2012年4月、7月和2013年2月；2013年2月18日四川盆地内三台-盐亭间先发生4.7级地震；四川及邻区大地震后5年左右的晚期强余震及后续强震活动；地震活动性参数b值异常等。这些异常图像的分析和应用有助于芦山地震的总结。
허다강진진례총결표명，재대지진전왕왕출현다충선조성지진활동이상，가이작위강진위험구예측적중요의거[1，2]。회고호산지진전존재적지진활동도상이상유：천전2008년개시신일륜대진활약막；연E103°선분포적천전동연대시근기대지진적주체활동대；역사상천북M≥6급지진적원지복발，이출현4대，1327년천전지진리서시간이680여년；1500~2007년중국남북지진대동연대（은천-통해）M≥7.7급지진공단내（강정-무도），재2008년발생료문천8급지진，북동향단측파렬약300 km，단남단（영수-천전）병미파렬，원결진“공단”상여일반；천전궤차중강이상지진후호산-대읍균발생향응성유발지진；중등지진월빈차이상출현재2012년4월、7월화2013년2월；2013년2월18일사천분지내삼태-염정간선발생4.7급지진；사천급린구대지진후5년좌우적만기강여진급후속강진활동；지진활동성삼수b치이상등。저사이상도상적분석화응용유조우호산지진적총결。
A lot of summaries of strong earthquakes indicate that many kind of precursory seismicities appeared be-fore strong earthquakes. We take these precursory seismicities as a key factor to predict the epicenter of future strong earthquake. The seismicity precursory image before the M7. 0 Lushan Earthquake is that the Sichuan-yun-nan seismic regions are in active episode since 2008 . The eastern belts of Sichuan-yunnan along the east longi-tude 103 line were recent main seismicity belts. From the historical earthquakes studies we find the north Sichuan province is an original seismic belts with the magnitude of M6 . 5 and there were 4 pair of earthquakes and 680 years have passed since the 1327 Tianquan Earthquake. From 1500 to 2007,the east boundary seismic belts along the south-north seismic belts from yingchuan to Tonghai in China,was a gap of M≥7. 7 from Kangdin to Tianquan. The 2008 M8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake broke a fault about 300 km long. But the southern segment did not. The in-duced response earthquakes along the Lushan-Dayu occurred after several strong earthquakes in Sichuan and yun-nan Provinces. The month times anomaly of precursory earthquakes with a middle level happen in three periods that is April,July 2012 and February 2013 respectively. In Sichuan basin there was an M4. 7 Santai Earthquake on 18 February 2013 . There will be strong aftershocks after the strong earthquake of the 2008 M8 . 0 Wenchuan Earth-quake in Sichuan and nearby regions. The abnormal parameter value-b of seismicity appears.