CAJ | 학술논문

交通负荷是影响交通通行寿命和可靠度的一个重要因素，交通负荷变化具有明显的周期性。本文针对多变量定性计算的交通负荷难题，利用时间序列的多变量自回归CARMA模型对交通负荷进行建模、预测的理论和方法，对动态系统实行统一建模。我们用递推最小二乘法的多变量自回归模型对交通负荷参数进行估计，并用DPS系统对模型进行预测和分析，测试结果证明了方法的有效性。
교통부하시영향교통통행수명화가고도적일개중요인소，교통부하변화구유명현적주기성。본문침대다변량정성계산적교통부하난제，이용시간서렬적다변량자회귀CARMA모형대교통부하진행건모、예측적이론화방법，대동태계통실행통일건모。아문용체추최소이승법적다변량자회귀모형대교통부하삼수진행고계，병용DPS계통대모형진행예측화분석，측시결과증명료방법적유효성。
Traffic load is one of the most factors which affect the nature life and reliability in current traffic sys-tem.Month load changes of traffic system have obvious periodicity.According to the multivariable qualitative cal-culation problem,the theory and method to estabilish the time series CARMA model in dynamic system are dis-cussed.Multivarible autoregression model uses recursive least-squares method to estimate the parameter and fore-cast in DPS system.The testing results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.