湖北农业科学
湖北農業科學
호북농업과학
2014年
9期
2216-2220
,共5页
国内游%发展特征%驱动因素%LMDI模型
國內遊%髮展特徵%驅動因素%LMDI模型
국내유%발전특정%구동인소%LMDI모형
domestic travel%developing characteristic%driving factor%LMDI model
采用描述性统计方法,分析了1994年以来我国国内游发展现状及基本特征,利用LMDI模型对我国国内游发展进行因素分解,结果表明,①产业内结构、产业间结构、经济水平、人口规模等4因素均促进了我国国内旅游的快速发展,与1995年相比,4因素分别使2010年国内游总收入累积增加了23.67%、26.30%、404.91%和27.89%；②各因素作用规律存在一定差异,其中,产业内结构因素年际波动性较强,产业间结构因素呈“M”形分布规律,经济水平因素的促进效应逐年放大；人口规模因素呈现“上升-下降-上升”的三阶段变化特征。
採用描述性統計方法,分析瞭1994年以來我國國內遊髮展現狀及基本特徵,利用LMDI模型對我國國內遊髮展進行因素分解,結果錶明,①產業內結構、產業間結構、經濟水平、人口規模等4因素均促進瞭我國國內旅遊的快速髮展,與1995年相比,4因素分彆使2010年國內遊總收入纍積增加瞭23.67%、26.30%、404.91%和27.89%；②各因素作用規律存在一定差異,其中,產業內結構因素年際波動性較彊,產業間結構因素呈“M”形分佈規律,經濟水平因素的促進效應逐年放大；人口規模因素呈現“上升-下降-上升”的三階段變化特徵。
채용묘술성통계방법,분석료1994년이래아국국내유발전현상급기본특정,이용LMDI모형대아국국내유발전진행인소분해,결과표명,①산업내결구、산업간결구、경제수평、인구규모등4인소균촉진료아국국내여유적쾌속발전,여1995년상비,4인소분별사2010년국내유총수입루적증가료23.67%、26.30%、404.91%화27.89%；②각인소작용규률존재일정차이,기중,산업내결구인소년제파동성교강,산업간결구인소정“M”형분포규률,경제수평인소적촉진효응축년방대；인구규모인소정현“상승-하강-상승”적삼계단변화특정。
The descriptive statistical methods was used to analyze the development status and basic characteristics of China's domestic travel since 1994. On this basis, LMDI model was applied in the decomposition of the factors affecting China's domestic travel development. The results showed that China′s domestic tourism has gained rapid development from 1995 to 2010 mainly due to the intra-industry structure industrial structure, economic level and population size. The total domestic travel income was cumulatively increased by 23.67%, 26.30%, 404.91% and 27.89%. There were certain differences in effects of various factors. Intra-industry structural factor had strong inter-annual volatility. Industry structure factor presented“M”-type distribution. The promoting effects of economic level had enlarged year after year. Population size factor presented three-stage variation of “up-down-up”.
