CAJ | 학술논문

运用协整分析、格兰杰因果分析、广义脉冲分析和方差分解等方法，考察了河南省1990-2010年城镇化率与能源消耗强度之间的动态关系特征。研究结果表明，河南省城镇化率与能源消耗强度之间存在长期均衡关系，脉冲分析显示两组变量之间呈现反向的变动趋势，且能源消耗强度对城镇化率的冲击效应明显，而城镇化率对能源消耗强度的冲击较小且平缓；方差分解结果表明，河南省能源消耗强度对城镇化率的贡献较大，而城镇化率对能源消耗强度的贡献较小。今后河南省在推进城镇化的进程中必需强调节能减排，走低碳经济之路。
운용협정분석、격란걸인과분석、엄의맥충분석화방차분해등방법，고찰료하남성1990-2010년성진화솔여능원소모강도지간적동태관계특정。연구결과표명，하남성성진화솔여능원소모강도지간존재장기균형관계，맥충분석현시량조변량지간정현반향적변동추세，차능원소모강도대성진화솔적충격효응명현，이성진화솔대능원소모강도적충격교소차평완；방차분해결과표명，하남성능원소모강도대성진화솔적공헌교대，이성진화솔대능원소모강도적공헌교소。금후하남성재추진성진화적진정중필수강조절능감배，주저탄경제지로。
Co-integration analysis, Grainger causality analysis, generalized impulse analysis and variance decomposition were used to investigate dynamic relationship between the urbanization rate and energy consumption intensity in Henan province during 1990-2010. The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization rate and the intensity of energy consumption in Henan province. Pulse analysis showed that the change trend was opposite between the two sets of variables. The impact of the intensity of energy consumption on the urbanization was more obvious compared with the impact of the urbanization on the intensity of energy consumption. Variance decomposition showed that contribution of en-ergy consumption intensity to changes in urbanization rate was high. The contribution of the urbanization rate to energy con-sumption intensity was small. Therefore, attention must be paid to conserve energy, develop low carbon economic in advanc-ing the process of urbanization in Henan province.