CAJ | 학술논문

湖泊对气候变化有着敏感的反应,是气候变化的镜子。本文以 RS 和 GIS 技术为基础,从20世纪70年代、90年代、2000年前后和2010年前后四期Landsat遥感影像中提取了我国内蒙古和新疆所有湖泊信息,建立了蒙新地区湖泊空间数据库。一方面,用ArcGIS软件对研究区湖泊信息进行了统计和空间分析,从时间和空间上分析了蒙新地区湖泊从20世纪70年代至2010年前后近40年湖泊的动态变化情况；另一方面,选取了蒙新地区面积大于5 km2的所有湖泊,逐个分析其在四个时期的变化情况,并根据变化结果进行分区。从20世纪70年代至90年代,内蒙古东南部和新疆西部的湖泊呈现萎缩的趋势,其余地区则在扩张；20世纪90年代至2000年前后,内蒙古东南部湖泊呈现萎缩的趋势,内蒙古北部和新疆全区湖泊呈现扩张的趋势；从2000年前后至2010年前后,内蒙古东北部和新疆西部的湖泊呈现萎缩的趋势,其余地区湖泊呈现扩张的趋势。在全球气候变暖的背景下,本文分析了蒙新地区40个气象台站的气温、降雨量和蒸发量数据,可知：近40年来,蒙新地区气温持续上升；2000年之前,内蒙古的降雨量呈增加的趋势,2000年之后骤减,而新疆大部分地区的降雨量呈增加的趋势；蒙新地区蒸发量整体呈现减少的趋势。湖泊的动态变化基本上与气候的变化趋势相吻合。最后,笔者以新疆博斯腾湖为例,分析了湖泊变化的影响因素：气候环境和人类活动。
호박대기후변화유착민감적반응,시기후변화적경자。본문이 RS 화 GIS 기술위기출,종20세기70년대、90년대、2000년전후화2010년전후사기Landsat요감영상중제취료아국내몽고화신강소유호박신식,건립료몽신지구호박공간수거고。일방면,용ArcGIS연건대연구구호박신식진행료통계화공간분석,종시간화공간상분석료몽신지구호박종20세기70년대지2010년전후근40년호박적동태변화정황；령일방면,선취료몽신지구면적대우5 km2적소유호박,축개분석기재사개시기적변화정황,병근거변화결과진행분구。종20세기70년대지90년대,내몽고동남부화신강서부적호박정현위축적추세,기여지구칙재확장；20세기90년대지2000년전후,내몽고동남부호박정현위축적추세,내몽고북부화신강전구호박정현확장적추세；종2000년전후지2010년전후,내몽고동북부화신강서부적호박정현위축적추세,기여지구호박정현확장적추세。재전구기후변난적배경하,본문분석료몽신지구40개기상태참적기온、강우량화증발량수거,가지：근40년래,몽신지구기온지속상승；2000년지전,내몽고적강우량정증가적추세,2000년지후취감,이신강대부분지구적강우량정증가적추세；몽신지구증발량정체정현감소적추세。호박적동태변화기본상여기후적변화추세상문합。최후,필자이신강박사등호위례,분석료호박변화적영향인소：기후배경화인류활동。
Lake change, as a mirror of climate change, has sensitive responses to climate change. The authors extracted information of all lakes in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang from Landsat of the 1970’s, the 1990’s, around 2000 and 2010 based on RS and GIS and developed the spatial database of lakes. On the one hand, through a statistic analysis of lake spatial data using ArcGIS, the authors detected the dynamic changes of lakes in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang from the 1970’s to 2010 or so in the light of time and space. On the other hand, some representative lakes whose area is larger than 5 km2 were selected to analyze the dynamic changes one by one, and division of these lakes into expansion area and atrophy area was made according to the dynamic changes. From the 1970’s to the 1990’s, lakes in south Inner Mongolia and west Xinjiang were shrunk whereas lakes in other places of the study region tended to expand. From the 1990’s to 2000, lakes in south Inner Mongolia were shrunk whereas lakes in north Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang were expanded. From 2000 to 2010, lakes in east Inner Mongolia and west Xinjiang were shrunk whereas other lakes were expanded. Under the background of the global climate warming, the authors analyzed annual mean temperature, annual rainfall and annual evaporation data of forty meteorological stations, and reached some conclusions based on the data obtained:in the past forty years, annual mean temperature in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang kept rising;annual rainfall in Inner Mongolia had kept growing before 2000 but decreased suddenly after 2000, and annual rainfall in most part of Xinjiang tended to increase;annual evaporation in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang tended to decrease. Dynamic changes of lakes in Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang region were consistent with the variation tendency of climate. With the Boston Lake of Xinjiang as an example, the authors finally analyzed the factors responsible for the lake changes, i.e., climatic environment and human activity.