CAJ | 학술논문

本研究旨在通过对高原城镇蔓延的驱动机制、评价指标体系与评价方法3个层次的分析，构建“城镇上山”政策效应评价框架，识别并判断“城镇上山”政策的可行性。运用比较分析方法，对不同文明阶段高原坝区城镇空间蔓延的驱动机制进行比较，得出生态文明下的“城镇上山”驱动特征；利用德尔菲法，构建“城镇上山”政策驱动的指标体系；采用倍差法，构建基于 DID模型的“城镇上山”政策效应评价体系。研究表明：在“生态文明”建设背景下，高原地区“城镇上山”驱动特征具有政策驱动属性，应基于政策驱动的特征，构建直接与间接驱动要素的“城镇上山”政策效应指标体系与评价方法。研究得出如下结论：政策驱动是“城镇上山”的原始驱动力；从政策作用的主体，可以构建“城镇上山”政策效应指标体系；基于倍差法构建的DID政策评价模型能够识别政策空间差异与政策时间差异，且具有指标预测与检验功能。
본연구지재통과대고원성진만연적구동궤제、평개지표체계여평개방법3개층차적분석，구건“성진상산”정책효응평개광가，식별병판단“성진상산”정책적가행성。운용비교분석방법，대불동문명계단고원패구성진공간만연적구동궤제진행비교，득출생태문명하적“성진상산”구동특정；이용덕이비법，구건“성진상산”정책구동적지표체계；채용배차법，구건기우 DID모형적“성진상산”정책효응평개체계。연구표명：재“생태문명”건설배경하，고원지구“성진상산”구동특정구유정책구동속성，응기우정책구동적특정，구건직접여간접구동요소적“성진상산”정책효응지표체계여평개방법。연구득출여하결론：정책구동시“성진상산”적원시구동력；종정책작용적주체，가이구건“성진상산”정책효응지표체계；기우배차법구건적DID정책평개모형능구식별정책공간차이여정책시간차이，차구유지표예측여검험공능。
The paper analyzes the driving mechanism of promoting the construction of hill towns,the related evaluation index system and evaluation method,and constructs a policy-effect evaluation framework for “hill towns",and assesses the feasibility of such policy.It gives a comparison of the construction of such towns in different stages of civilizations and their different features.It adopts the Delphi method to build a policy-driven indicator system for “hill towns”and the fold difference method to construct a model based on DID “hill towns”policy-effect evaluation system.The results show that against the background of “ecological civilization",the driving mechanism of “hill towns”in the high-land shows the policy-related characteristics and its evaluation system should be constructed with a consideration of such characteristics.It concludes that the policy-driven feature is the original driving force of “hill towns ”on which an assessment system can be built.The DID model can help reveal the temporal and spatial policy-related differences with the functions of prediction and examination.