CAJ | 학술논문

目的：探讨多状态Markov模型在高血压人群中的应用。方法对2011年1月-2012年12月两年间在朱泾社区卫生服务中心建档并进行健康管理的2224名高血压患者，按照高血压分型分为低危、中危、高危、极高危四种状态，进行Markov模型模拟，分析患者的预后。结果循环周期为2年，低危病例转换为中危、高危的概率分别为0.096、0.024；中危病例转化为低危、极高危的概率分别为0.006、0.009；高危转化为低危、中危和极高危的概率分别为0.011、0.034和0.070；极高危病例转化为中危的概率为0.031；模型预测今后30年低危病例降低0.086，极高危病例上升0.059，差异均有统计学意义（χ2值分别为92.7、28.5，P﹤0.05）。结论 Markov模型可以用于高血压研究，预测患者预后，对临床工作有指导意义。
목적：탐토다상태Markov모형재고혈압인군중적응용。방법대2011년1월-2012년12월량년간재주경사구위생복무중심건당병진행건강관리적2224명고혈압환자，안조고혈압분형분위저위、중위、고위、겁고위사충상태，진행Markov모형모의，분석환자적예후。결과순배주기위2년，저위병례전환위중위、고위적개솔분별위0.096、0.024；중위병례전화위저위、겁고위적개솔분별위0.006、0.009；고위전화위저위、중위화겁고위적개솔분별위0.011、0.034화0.070；겁고위병례전화위중위적개솔위0.031；모형예측금후30년저위병례강저0.086，겁고위병례상승0.059，차이균유통계학의의（χ2치분별위92.7、28.5，P﹤0.05）。결론 Markov모형가이용우고혈압연구，예측환자예후，대림상공작유지도의의。
Objective To explore the application of multimode Markov model to the people with hyperten-sion. Methods 2 224 patients with hypertension were divided into four groups according to hypertension classification:low -risk,median-risk,high-risk and very-high-risk,who went to Zhujing community health center to establish their files and received health management there during January 1st,2011 and December 31st,2012. We used Markov model to simulate and analyzed the prognosis of the patients. Results After 2 years of cycle period,the probabilities of low-risk cases being converted into mid-risk and high-risk were 0. 096 and 0. 024 respectively;the probabilities of mid-risk cases being converted into low-risk and very-high-risk were 0. 006 and 0. 009 respectively;the probabilities high-risk cases being converted to low-risk and mid-risk and very-high-risk were 0. 011,0. 034,and 0. 070 respectively;the probability of very-high-risk being converted to mid-risk was 0. 031;the simulation predicted that in the following 30 years,the low-risk would drop by 0. 086 and very-high -risk would rise by 0. 059 and both differences were statistically significant(χ2 =92. 7,28. 5,P﹤0. 05). Conclusion Markov model can be used to predict the prognosis of the patients as a guidance of clinical work.