CAJ | 학술논문

热带气旋成灾是致灾因子、受灾对象的物理暴露与脆弱性以及应对灾害能力等共同作用的复杂的非线性过程。在应灾能力无显著变化的前提下，受灾风险大小及灾情轻重常与热带气旋风雨的影响强弱相一致。热带气旋风雨越大，越趋于小概率事件时，其超出承灾体忍受能力或设防标准可能性越大，导致严重灾害的可能性越大。所以，可根据热带气旋风雨强度的出现可能性大小确立风险阈值判据，以此评估影响风险程度。该研究应用了气象随机现象在时间域与空间域分布上具等价性的原理，以热带气旋“海葵”对上海地区影响为例开展试验，建立了以日降水量区域极值、极大风速区域极值为边际分布的热带气旋风雨影响强度联合分布模型。结果显示，根据联合分布模型得出的热带气旋影响风雨共现超越概率能较好地表征影响风险程度，尤其对受灾严重的高风险区有相当确定的鉴判。这为基于气象资料提高极端事件影响评估的准确性提供了有价值的思路，也为规避及转移风险或合理利用资源提供客观依据。
열대기선성재시치재인자、수재대상적물리폭로여취약성이급응대재해능력등공동작용적복잡적비선성과정。재응재능력무현저변화적전제하，수재풍험대소급재정경중상여열대기선풍우적영향강약상일치。열대기선풍우월대，월추우소개솔사건시，기초출승재체인수능력혹설방표준가능성월대，도치엄중재해적가능성월대。소이，가근거열대기선풍우강도적출현가능성대소학립풍험역치판거，이차평고영향풍험정도。해연구응용료기상수궤현상재시간역여공간역분포상구등개성적원리，이열대기선“해규”대상해지구영향위례개전시험，건립료이일강수량구역겁치、겁대풍속구역겁치위변제분포적열대기선풍우영향강도연합분포모형。결과현시，근거연합분포모형득출적열대기선영향풍우공현초월개솔능교호지표정영향풍험정도，우기대수재엄중적고풍험구유상당학정적감판。저위기우기상자료제고겁단사건영향평고적준학성제공료유개치적사로，야위규피급전이풍험혹합리이용자원제공객관의거。
TC catastrophe is a complex non-linear result of multiple factors.The risk of catastrophe is positive-ly related to the impact of typhoon under the premise of stable reaction capability.The possibility of serious impact from catastrophe increases when typhoon is stronger and probability is smaller.Multivariate compound distribution function are introduces to discuss TC joint risk probability in wind and rain.Based on the fact that climate stochas-tic events possess equivalence property over time and space,a joint probability risk assessment model is established by using TC Haikui as an example.The marginal distributions of the model are the maximum precipitation and the maximum wind speed,and the determining factor of risk is the exceedance probability of co-occurrence in wind and rain.The results suggest that the simultaneous of the exceedance probability in wind and rain describes TC risk lev-el accurately;especially in terms of the high risk area with sever catastrophe impact.This leads to a meaningful clue for the accuracy of extreme events risk assessment using meteorological data.