CAJ | 학술논문

自然灾害风险（Risk）是灾害损失的可能性，主要取决于致灾因子、脆弱性、暴露性以及防灾减灾能力四个因素。脆弱性（Vulnerability）衡量承灾体遭受损害的程度，是灾损估算和风险评估的重要环节，是致灾因子与灾情联系的桥梁。在全面收集研究区气象、土壤、土地类型、田间管理数据等资料的基础上，以吉林西部玉米干旱灾害作为研究对象，选取了吉林西部2001年、2002年、2004年以及2006-2009年7个案例干旱年的干旱致灾强度作为输入，运用CERES-Maize模型，模拟和计算出不同干旱致灾强度下不同生育期对最终产量起主要影响的关键指标的损失率，并且拟合出脆弱性曲线。结果表明，脆弱性对最终产量影响由高到低的生育期为抽雄-乳熟期、拔节-抽雄期、乳熟-成熟期、出苗-拔节期。研究结果可以为旱灾损失的快速评估、区域农业干旱灾害风险评估以及预警提供依据，为区域防灾避灾与管理工作提供科学依据。
자연재해풍험（Risk）시재해손실적가능성，주요취결우치재인자、취약성、폭로성이급방재감재능력사개인소。취약성（Vulnerability）형량승재체조수손해적정도，시재손고산화풍험평고적중요배절，시치재인자여재정련계적교량。재전면수집연구구기상、토양、토지류형、전간관리수거등자료적기출상，이길림서부옥미간한재해작위연구대상，선취료길림서부2001년、2002년、2004년이급2006-2009년7개안례간한년적간한치재강도작위수입，운용CERES-Maize모형，모의화계산출불동간한치재강도하불동생육기대최종산량기주요영향적관건지표적손실솔，병차의합출취약성곡선。결과표명，취약성대최종산량영향유고도저적생육기위추웅-유숙기、발절-추웅기、유숙-성숙기、출묘-발절기。연구결과가이위한재손실적쾌속평고、구역농업간한재해풍험평고이급예경제공의거，위구역방재피재여관리공작제공과학의거。
Natural disaster risk is the possibility of disaster losses,depending on hazard,vulnerability,expo-sure,and emergency response and recovery capability.Vulnerability is to measure the degree of hazard bearing body when suffered damage,which is not only an important part of risk assessment for loss estimation and disaster, but also is linked to the bridge of hazard and disaster.Information on meteorology,soil,land use,field manage-ment data and other information of the research area are collected.The drought disaster magnitude of seven-year (2001,2002,2004,2006-2009)are used to input into the CERES-Maize Model.The loss rate of the key indi-cators,which plays a major impact on the final yield at different growth stages under different disaster magnitude of drought,is calculated.At last the vulnerability curves of different growing stages are got.The results show that vul-nerability affects the final yield from high to low is tasseling stage,jointing stage,maturity stage,seeding stage. The results can be used to assess drought damage quickly,provide the basis for the regional agricultural drought disaster risk assessment and early warning,and also can provide the basis for the regional disaster prevention and management.