CAJ | 학술논문

旱灾风险评估是定量认识旱灾风险机理、科学防控旱灾风险的重要基础性研究，在旱灾风险管理理论与实践中具有重要意义。根据旱灾风险的形成机制，在旱灾风险评估基本概念分析的基础上，提出并系统地阐述了由旱灾致灾因子危险性、承灾体的灾损敏感性、暴露和抗旱能力组成的旱灾风险系统。在此系统结构基础上提出了旱灾风险评估方法论和旱灾风险评估理论模式，进而建立了由致灾因子危险性分析、承灾体脆弱性分析、旱灾损失风险分析、旱灾风险评价、旱灾风险决策分析方法组成的旱灾风险评估方法体系，以及由干旱频率与旱灾损失关系曲线图、干旱频率空间分布图、旱灾损失空间分布图、与旱灾风险有关的致灾因子危险性分布图等各种专题图、旱灾风险区划图组成的旱灾风险评估应用模式体系。由上述旱灾风险系统结构、旱灾风险评估方法论和理论模式、旱灾风险评估方法体系和应用模式体系组成旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架，该理论框架在其它自然灾害风险评估中具有参考应用价值。
한재풍험평고시정량인식한재풍험궤리、과학방공한재풍험적중요기출성연구，재한재풍험관리이론여실천중구유중요의의。근거한재풍험적형성궤제，재한재풍험평고기본개념분석적기출상，제출병계통지천술료유한재치재인자위험성、승재체적재손민감성、폭로화항한능력조성적한재풍험계통。재차계통결구기출상제출료한재풍험평고방법론화한재풍험평고이론모식，진이건립료유치재인자위험성분석、승재체취약성분석、한재손실풍험분석、한재풍험평개、한재풍험결책분석방법조성적한재풍험평고방법체계，이급유간한빈솔여한재손실관계곡선도、간한빈솔공간분포도、한재손실공간분포도、여한재풍험유관적치재인자위험성분포도등각충전제도、한재풍험구화도조성적한재풍험평고응용모식체계。유상술한재풍험계통결구、한재풍험평고방법론화이론모식、한재풍험평고방법체계화응용모식체계조성한재풍험평고적초보이론광가，해이론광가재기타자연재해풍험평고중구유삼고응용개치。
Drought risk assessment is one of the most important basic researches on the quantitative under-standing of the mechanism of drought risk and scientific control of drought risk,which is of great significance in the theory and practice of drought risk management.According to the formation mechanism of drought risk,the drought risk system consisted of disaster hazard,damage sensitivity,drought exposure and drought resistance capacity is proposed and systematically expounded based on the analysis of the basic concepts of drought risk assessment.On the basis of the drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment are put forward. And then,the method system of drought risk assessment consisted of drought hazard analysis,drought vulnerability analysis,drought loss risk analysis,drought risk assessment,drought risk decision analysis is established.Mean-while,the application mode system of drought risk assessment is established,which is consisted of all kinds of the-matic maps related to drought risk such as drought frequency-drought loss diagram,spatial distribution maps of drought frequency,drought loss and drought hazard,as well as the hazard zoning map of drought risk.The prelimi-nary theoretical framework of drought risk assessment,which is consisted of drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment,method system of drought risk assessment and its application mode system,has reference and application value in other natural disaster risk assessments.